PA Statewide Elections 2019

[Tartarus Sauce]

So, it feels like there is mixed results in the suburbs? The Delco and Chester council news is great, but the statewide races were very wonky.

These aren't *directly* comparable, but in Chester, Casey won by 20% last year, while Dems only 7.6% this year (not even Clinton's margin), while in Delco, Clinton won by 22% and Casey by *31%* yet Dems only added up to +10% in the statewide result. I know the suburbs are more moderate sometimes downballot, but this seems like a serious and odd downward trend, especially when the council seats all flipped blue.

Meanwhile, WTF happened in Dauphin? Clinton +3 and Casey +11 to Reps adding up to +7 there yesterday.

In the Trump flip areas, Lackawanna (Clinton +3.5, Casey +23.2), went to the Dems by 9%, while Erie (Trump +1.6, Casey +18.4) went to the Dems by 2%.

Even my home county, Montgomery disappointed me a bit. We went 22% by Dems, but that's only on par with Clinton (+21) and way less than Casey (+32).

Philly still has 100 precincts left to report and Northampton 150, plus a few other outstanding ones (~350 in total), so hoping that Green-Hawkins can somehow pull out a win for 2nd place.

I know these statewide races can not be reflective of what's happening, but it's still a bit dissapointing. Was hoping for a way better result from Dems, but turnout in my county, Montco, for example, was only 37%, compared to 67% last year.

Probably has to do in large part to turnout.  I can almost guarantee you that I was in the vast minority of people in my age bracket of 18-25 that even bothered to vote.  In contrast, the 65+ crowd definitely kept up the trend of getting out and voting, rain or shine.  When I voted near Uni City, I was definitely the youngest person in the room by at least forty years.  

Yeah, not sure what you're bummed about, wbrocks, off-year electorates for local races are very different from statewide election demographic profiles. There's a reason the Republicans managed to keep a lock on all those local offices long after the areas started voting Democrat at the top of the ticket during normal election years, older conservative voters were the most invested in keeping the archaic GOP machine in place. A similar dynamic played out in Northern Virginia until 2017 where the GOP largely dominated local and assembly seats throughout the Obama years even after they were losing those same districts by double digits during presidential election years.

The fact that Republicans lost control of all those local offices in a low-turnout election dominated by senior citizen voters is not good news for them going forward.

[Tartarus Sauce]

But lower turnout is not uniformly good for Republicans though as its more educated voters who turn out disproportionately when turnout is lower and Republicans in PA do better with less educated voters offsetting the gains they might make with younger voters not turning out as much.

Sure, but I'm just pointing out for him that he doesn't really have any reason to be bummed by margins. The electorate demographics are like apples to oranges compared to normal elections.