Cook Releases 2017 PVI Info (user search)
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  Cook Releases 2017 PVI Info (search mode)
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Author Topic: Cook Releases 2017 PVI Info  (Read 11200 times)
Tartarus Sauce
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Posts: 3,361
United States


« on: April 11, 2017, 12:02:00 PM »

I can't help but feel like PVIs based on 2016 may not be overly useful.

Especially when they also factor in 2012. PVI is a pretty useless measure honestly.

It's useful for gauging an overall composite of the political landscape, but less resourceful when it comes to predicting future elections, due to its incapability of accounting for sudden shifts in the electorate. It measures what's already happened, not what's laying in wait down the road. Hence, the historical trend of the PVI index has demonstrated how Congressional House districts have been increasingly polarized over time and the number of competitive districts have dramatically evaporated over the past two decades, but its indicator of a Republican Congressional PVI advantage is only as predictive as it was when it said the same thing in the 2004 index. Didn't stop the 2006 Democratic Wave. Similarly, the 2008 index didn't reflect the 2010 midterm Republican backlash.
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