Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[Tartarus Sauce]

This is coming right out of the meeting with Trump, too.

This bill has been a no go for weeks anyway, Heller was always a guaranteed no vote without significant changes to the Medicaid portion of the bill, he just didn't definitively put his foot down the way Collins and Paul did, but he was never going to be able to get to yes in its current state.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Welp, looks like Senate Republicans want to lock themselves into a position to be blackmailed by the House Republicans. On another note, if this does end up being passed by the House (even though Ryan pinky promised), the amount of disgusting precedent this process has set makes potentially passing something like single payer a lot easier in 2021.

This really does look like a stupid bill. It essentially leaves most of the main parts of Obamacare intact, will cause premiums to skyrocket, and uninsure millions of people. If they were going to pass something, why the  would they pass a turd like this

Because they've backed themselves into a corner and have no good outs. There is no long term victory for them here.

[Tartarus Sauce]

So, the skinny repeal preserves 95% of ObamaCare, doesn't get rid of the Medicaid expansion, or the exchanges or like, 95% of things ObamaCare does.

But it raises premiums 20% and kicks off 16 million people because of higher premiums. Do I have that right?

Yes. And most Republican senators  seem to be aware of that and will vote yes anyway

They're making a short term political calculation that will royally screw them in future elections.

The GOP, especially now with Trump as their figurehead, cares more now about the optics of ostensible victory over actual substantive victories. Such is the myopia that has infected the party. It's like watching a trainwreck happen in slow motion.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I honestly feel like shooting myself.

Not because I want this to pass, I just can't go through another negative press day for my party and my ideology. I cannot do it.

I love politics and I the last 6 months have been absolute hell for me.

So long as Trump is in the White House, it won't get any better.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Thanks McConnell and Heller, we get to save Obamacare AND take the second Nevada senate seat. What a deal.

Don't forget to thank Paul Ryan for forcing lots of vulnerable moderate House Republicans to vote for the ACHA under the false pretense that punting it to the Senate would produce a better bill and getting their votes on record for an extremely unpopular bill.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Politically, is it better for the GOP that this bill didn't pass and they don't have to deal with the massive downsides of Skinny Repeal?

Voting it down will lessen the potential damage during a general election, but will hurt in primaries. That being said, Murkowski, Collins, and McCain are the three Republicans that care the least about primary challengers of the GOP senate caucus at the moment. Net result is a downturn in base enthusiasm which could hurt them in the midterms, but not as much as they would have been burned by swing voters if they had passed the legislation.

Also, Trump throwing a tempter tantrum and gunning for the defectors could get really nasty and who knows what stupid sh**t he will do that will screw everything up. He might decide to withold payouts to insurance companies out of spite in which case the health insurance markets will collapse anyway.

[Tartarus Sauce]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

While it's still likely the GOP gains seats in 2018 because the Dems performed way above expectations in 2012, there's no way they gain five seats with Trump as President. Heck, it's remotely possible that Dems retake the Senate in 2018 (Nevada, Arizona, and Arizona special) but even that would require Trump deliberately sabotaging the ACA by screwing the marketplace insurers out of funds should get under current law.

52-
53- MT
54- ND
55- MO
56- IN
57- OH
58- WV
59- MI

It's very possible. None of those seats are safe D. And this is assuming Menendez doesn't go down in a corruption scandal.

Don't be dumb. You know that it would take a Republican wave for Democrats to lose all those seats, let alone more than like 3 or 4.

Democrats will lose all of them plus PA, filibuster-proof majority.

Senators from the party out of the White House are rarely taken out during midterms. Even with the GOP favorable map, the negative political environment will make the task of unseating the majority of the Democratic senators in competitive states incredibly difficult. They'd be lucky if they just managed to take out McCaskill and one other. Anything beyond that would take close to a miracle the way things are going right now.

[Tartarus Sauce]

The useless GOP at it again:

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Moving forward on Graham's plan is impossible without McConnell gutting the legislative filibuster, which he won't. Skinny repeal was their last chance this fiscal year. You can only use the reconciliation process in a certain subject/policy area once a year. So unless they decide to revisit their unpopular health care reform literally in the weeks leading up to their midterms with an already unpopular incumbent president, Graham-Cassidy-Heller is dead in the water.

Probably not actually true. No reconciliation bill has passed, since this bill failed. A different reconciliation could therefore pass for FY 2017. (Assuming we aren't past Sept 30th)

At least, that seems to be what people seem to be saying. No one really understands reconciliation.

McCain will vote down any process that requires reconciliation at this point so they can't viably pass a bill through using it anymore. They don't seem to have gotten that message yet.