Even Hillary gets 4.4% more Popular Votes TRUMP still can win(Demographics)

[Tartarus Sauce]

Nice job leaving out Colorado, Nevada, and Florida in your whole "Hispanics don't matter in swing states" shtick; it's quite telling. It's also cute how you use a single poll 5 months from election to claim that the gap has narrowed by comparing it to actual hard voting data from a past election, and that's not even getting into how your lone poll snapshots a period in the campaign where Donald Trump has consolidated his side of the field while Hillary Clinton hasn't, so Clinton still has ground left to gain. Meanwhile, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump has more to lose, especially among Cuban Americans in that ever so important swing state called Florida you don't seem to be aware exists.

But the real problem is that he's alienating more than just Hispanics; he's alienating Blacks, Asians, Millenials, women, and educated whites as well. That last one is important since educated whites make up a HUGE portion of the general electorate as well as in virtually every swing state, so Trump's losses in that area are particularly devastating. Doubling down on blue collar whites doesn't help when there's less of them every election and they never turn out in the same numbers as educated whites anyway.

Besides all of that, sure, he COULD win the EV while losing the popular vote, you've proven it's within the realm of hypothetical possibility. It's also hypothetically within the realm of possibility to win the EV by only winning the eleven most populated states if you ignore the fact they don't all vote the same. Similarly, you seem to be ignoring that the PV-EV difference by state partisan affiliation don't mean squat in terms of Safe EV totals, which Democratics unquestionably hold. This in turn, is evidence of you ignoring the importance of swing states (you don't seem to be very good with them) pushing the winner over the finish line. Democrats don't need to focus on very many, Republicans need to make a play in the majority of them. Considering how terrible a fit Trump is for most of those states' demographics whose rapid population shifts have been increasingly favoring Democrats, scraping by the skin of his teeth is the most generous win I'd be willing to give him.

But you're clearly more content putting on your wizardry hat and playing mathematical alchemy, so my attempt to convince you of your errors is likely as futile an endeavor as your attempt to turn that lead into gold.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Nice job leaving out Colorado, Nevada, and Florida in your whole "Hispanics don't matter in swing states" shtick; it's quite telling.

I honestly couldn't bother to read what he wrote because it is just way too long (and I'm a total numbers guy), but the reality is...Latinos really don't matter as much as we hear. Ten years from now, it'll be a different story.

I've said it a few times on here lately already, but Romney could have won anywhere from 11% to 43% of the Latino vote nationally in 2012 and it wouldn't have flipped a single state (other than Florida, which was less than a one-point win and has a large Hispanic population, of which half are Cubans and don't express the same voting tendencies as most Latinos). On the upper end of that, Romney would have lost the popular vote by just a little less than two points and the EC would have been 303-235.

Colorado would have flipped at around 44%; Virginia and New Mexico at 45%. Even Bush didn't top those numbers in 2004. The reality is that the Latino vote as of right now is almost exclusively clustered in safe D/R states and therefore doesn't matter from the perspective of the Electoral College. Most states that are competitive have such small Latino populations that it'd have to be the thinnest of margins to make a difference...and even in the case of CO, NV & NM, if they vote anywhere near how they voted in 2008/2012, then the Latino vote doesn't make a difference in terms of the range of realistic turnout/support scenarios.

Obviously it is very short-sighted for the GOP to alienate Latinos, but alas. Unless it's 2000-close, it's not going make a difference in the overall outcome in presidential elections for another couple of elections (and even then, we're already winning in the states where that will largely be the case).

Fair point, the true electoral power of Hispanics will unfold in the coming decades, but I doubt this will end up being 2000 type close this year. Winning over Hispanics may not in itself deliver the three states I mentioned as the demographics of those states currently stand, but they constitute large enough portions that alienating them wholesale requires you to compensate for the losses somewhere else, and considering how terrible Trump is at expanding his coalition, those are hits he really can't afford to be taking.