538 2020 commentary megathread

[kyc0705]

From that discussion, here is their new draft on who is most likely to win the 2020 Dem. presidential nomination.  (h) = picked by Harry, (c) = picked by Clare, (n) = picked by Nate.

1) Harris (h)
2) Gillibrand (c)
3) Sanders (n)
4) Biden (h)
5) Warren (c)
6) Doug Jones (n)
7) Booker (h)
8 ) Landrieu (c)
9) Brown (n)
10) Inslee (h)
11) Castro (c)
12) Clinton (n)
13) Kander (h)
14) Garcetti (c)
15) The Rock (n)

Please oh please

The best part of the podcast was everyone beating up on that pick instantaneously.

[kyc0705]

From that discussion, here is their new draft on who is most likely to win the 2020 Dem. presidential nomination.  (h) = picked by Harry, (c) = picked by Clare, (n) = picked by Nate.

1) Harris (h)
2) Gillibrand (c)
3) Sanders (n)
4) Biden (h)
5) Warren (c)
6) Doug Jones (n)
7) Booker (h)
8 ) Landrieu (c)
9) Brown (n)
10) Inslee (h)
11) Castro (c)
12) Clinton (n)
13) Kander (h)
14) Garcetti (c)
15) The Rock (n)

Please oh please

The best part of the podcast was everyone beating up on that pick instantaneously.

No, that was the worst part

It just seems like such a hot take, though. The man hasn't even taken his seat yet, and people are already discussing his presidential prospects. It's that kind of overhype that dooms candidates before they can even start thinking about running. I think Jones is more of a VP or attorney general than anything else.

[kyc0705]

From that discussion, here is their new draft on who is most likely to win the 2020 Dem. presidential nomination.  (h) = picked by Harry, (c) = picked by Clare, (n) = picked by Nate.

1) Harris (h)
2) Gillibrand (c)
3) Sanders (n)
4) Biden (h)
5) Warren (c)
6) Doug Jones (n)
7) Booker (h)
8 ) Landrieu (c)
9) Brown (n)
10) Inslee (h)
11) Castro (c)
12) Clinton (n)
13) Kander (h)
14) Garcetti (c)
15) The Rock (n)

Please oh please

The best part of the podcast was everyone beating up on that pick instantaneously.

No, that was the worst part

It just seems like such a hot take, though. The man hasn't even taken his seat yet, and people are already discussing his presidential prospects. It's that kind of overhype that dooms candidates before they can even start thinking about running. I think Jones is more of a VP or attorney general than anything else.

Here's the thing, though - what does he have to lose? His seat will be up that year, he'll have no future prospects in the state, and he'll be staring down the prospect of a 20-point loss to Generic R. Even a tidal wave won't likely be able to save him with Republican turnout back to normal in Alabama.

Why not forgo the re-election campaign and see if his common-sense message can gain some traction? There's probably a slot for a centrist amid the progressive scrum, and he's less problematic to the base than Cuomo or Cuban and more likely to run than Biden or Cooper.

I suppose. I just dislike the excessive narrative-forming that happens this far out. It seems to serve no one except the people manufacturing it, and comes off as detrimental to the actual prospects of the candidates themselves.

[kyc0705]

This chat is beautiful:



@a disturbing amount of Atlas who have, at one point or another, unironically woshipped about the presidential prospects of a failed Senate candidate from two years ago