Encke's December Midterms Tracker (11/14-11/16)

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

From December 14, 2018 through December 16, 2018, five elections will be held: the House election, Class II senatorial elections for each region, and the December Lincoln assembly election.

As always, votes will be tallied on a spreadsheet. For senate and house races, crosstabs are included by party and region. Turnout statistics are also shown.

SPREADSHEET

LAST VOTE UPDATED (sheet) : Pericles (late)
LAST VOTE UPDATED (maps) : Pericles (late)

Maps will be updated less frequently than the spreadsheet.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Maps finally updated with the first wave of votes.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Just woke up, everything is now up to date.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Senate update:

I performed 10000 trial elections for both the Fremont and Southern senate elections.

Sestak's chance of winning: 99.98% (9998 of 10000 trials)
NCY's change of winning: >99.99% (10000 of 10000 trials)

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Senate update:

I performed 10000 trial elections for both the Fremont and Southern senate elections.

Sestak's chance of winning: 99.98% (9998 of 10000 trials)
NCY's change of winning: >99.99% (10000 of 10000 trials)

How did you generate the trials?

I keep a voter spreadsheet that uses past voting history to generate two voting probabilities (likelihood of voting, and likelihood of voting Fed/Labor). These probabilities are then fed into a bit of code that uses these probabilities to simulate elections. Since I was gone for a year, there's a lot of history that I had to catch up on, and I'm not done going through past Lincoln elections yet, which is why I don't have a prediction for that one.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Maps are finally up to date.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

24 hours left.

I know it's too early to say anything yet, but this map is ugly as hell.

Here's a nicer one from 2 years ago:

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Morning update.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

I'm from Arkansas.

Blame Peebs, the census is wrong.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Ushering in a new age of Atlasian politics: the age of orange Massachusetts

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Preliminary results; someone can check my work.

Quota was 14; all Labor Coalition candidates elected with a surplus. Votes transfer, mostly to Ninja, putting him over the quota. His surplus is reallocated. No candidates above quota; Spark is eliminated, and his two votes transfer to LT. LT is above quota; votes are transferred. No one else is above quota, so OSR is eliminated and his votes transferred. TPH is above quota; votes transfer to AZ and vern. No candidates is above quota; vern is eliminated. 9 seats are filled.

candidate	R1	realloc	R2	realloc	R3	realloc	R4	realloc	R5	realloc	R6	realloc	R7
AZ	10.000	0.444	10.444	0.277	10.721	0.000	10.721	0.159	10.880	2.062	12.941	0.653	13.594
TPH	11.000	0.778	11.778	0.277	12.054	0.000	12.054	0.159	12.213	3.092	15.305	-1.305	14.000
LT	12.000	0.200	12.200	0.277	12.477	2.000	14.477	-0.477	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000
OSR	8.000	0.167	8.167	0.000	8.167	0.000	8.167	0.079	8.246	-8.246	0.000	0.000	0.000
vern	8.000	0.167	8.167	0.415	8.581	0.000	8.581	0.079	8.661	3.092	11.753	0.653	12.406
spark*	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	-2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
DC	15.000	-1.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000
gibson	15.000	-1.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000
jimmy	15.000	-1.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000
HWVP	15.000	-1.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000
razze	16.000	-2.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000
ninja	11.000	4.244	15.244	-1.244	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000	0.000	14.000

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Lincoln Assembly (assuming Badger's vote is invalid). Quota is 10.

R1	realloc	R2	realloc	R3
wxtransit	12	-2	10	0	10
Jaydon	10	0	10	0	10
Peanut	8	1.333333333	9.333333333	1	10.33333333
Pessimistic	7	0.666666667	7.666666667	0	7.666666667
Kingpoleon	1	0	1	-1	0