What will make the Pacific Northwest trend GOP?

[evergreenarbor]

The Republicans would have to move pretty far to the left on social issues. From my experience, voters in the western parts of Oregon and Washington, where the majority of the population lives, generally care more about social issues than they do about economic policy.

Alternatively, they could nominate a very moderate candidate (e.g. Pataki) while the Democrats nominated a very poor candidate (e.g. Chafee).

[evergreenarbor]

Rubio is much too conservative to win Washington.

[evergreenarbor]

Rossi nearly won in 2004, but in that same year Bush lost Washington by 7 percentage points while winning nationwide.

Republican gubernatorial candidates tend to outperform Republican presidential candidates in Washington. Also, Washington has trended more Democratic since 2004, and it continues to do so - the most liberal counties in the state also tend to be the fastest-growing.

[evergreenarbor]

The GOP's best hope here is that Mt. Rainier erupts and completely wipes out Seattle.

Nah, Seattle won't be that badly affected if Mt. Rainier erupts. It's the areas *south* of Seattle that will have real trouble if that happens:



The GOP's real best hope is for that 9.0 earthquake to hit.