Rasmussen poll Allen 47% Warner 43%

[MissCatholic]

April 18, 2005--If Governor Mark Warner decides to challenge Senator George Allen in 2006, Virginians could be in for an interesting campaign season. A Rasmussen Reports survey shows the candidates within four points of each other in a survey with a 4.5 percentage point margin of sampling error.

Allen, the Republican incumbent, currently earns 47% of the vote while Warner attracts 43%. Many people consider it unlikely that Warner will challenge Allen. It would be difficult for other Democrats to match Warner's numbers at this time.

(A separate release shows the GOP also has an edge in the 2005 race to be Virginia's next Governor).

Allen leads despite the fact that Warner is viewed a bit more favorably by voters in the state. The numbers for Warner are 65% favorable and 26% unfavorable. Senator Allen is viewed favorably by 59% and unfavorably by 29%.

The numbers suggest continuation of a trend we saw in Election 2004--Senate races are increasingly tied to perceptions of the President and the national image of Republicans and Democrats.

Among voters who view Warner favorably but will vote for Allen, 86% approve of the way George W. Bush is performing his job as President. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of these voters are Republicans, 11% Democrats, and 32% unaffiliated.

From an ideological perspective, those who like Warner but will vote for Allen lean strongly to the right--61% conservative and 33% moderate.

In 2004, Senators like Tom Coburn and Lisa Murkowski were pulled to victory by the coattails of George W. Bush and the national Republican party. Those trends intensified as Election Day drew near.

The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted Thursday night, April 14, 2005. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence.