http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/go into politics then o8 elections
Intrade have a very high success rate. on election day they got every state right.
Kerry had a 54% chance of winning Wisconsin on election day when only three days earlier Bush had a 605 chance.
Same happened in Ohio, Kerry was favourite with a week to go and Bush moved ahead in the last few days from 43% to 61%.
This is the site to follow if you want to know who the nominee is.
Feingold has no chance according to this.
But interesting to see George Allen in third, ref Bill Frist is doing well also.
