NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[GoTfan]

How many of the people answering the “who wins” posts every month are moved into the Trump camp? Surreal to say but this feels over ALREADY. Which even I wouldn’t have said before.

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

I don’t think it is over because Trump’s position is pretty tenuous in the rust belt even if it’s stronger in the sun belt.

Yeah, even the article states this:

Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, Black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets underway.

This is getting a little delusional at this point. May nots and maybes are typically used by the losing side. Biden is going to lose.

[GoTfan]

How many of the people answering the “who wins” posts every month are moved into the Trump camp? Surreal to say but this feels over ALREADY. Which even I wouldn’t have said before.

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

I don’t think it is over because Trump’s position is pretty tenuous in the rust belt even if it’s stronger in the sun belt.

Yeah, even the article states this:

Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, Black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets underway.

This is getting a little delusional at this point. May nots and maybes are typically used by the losing side. Biden is going to lose.

He could lose but it’s not a done deal he will lose.

It pretty much is. I'm not sure anyone in that 'brain trust' knows what they're doing anymore.

[GoTfan]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

Because disengaged voters will vote against the incumbent.

[GoTfan]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

I'm still very optimistic about the rust belt, but as a native Georgian, I'm very disheartened by the sunbelt polls.

Georgia has been trending blue for years, so I don't get why Trump is leading by even more than he won the state by in 2016 -- or even Mitt Romney's 2012 margin if you buy this poll. I also have no idea where Trump would make up that ground (and I know Georgia's political geography very well) so it's also confounding.

I mean, it's basically all compounded within the nonwhite sample. From what I've seen, most GA polls have Biden at or close to the 30% of white voters he needs to win the state. We've gotten a lot of recent GA polls having Trump only up 1-3, so call me crazy for saying that this is a clear outlier, and any poll that has him up nearly 10 in a swing state is.

Donald Trump's own internal had him up only 4 in Arizona, but we're going to believe he's up 6-9? At some people we need to stop being so overreactive here, but also the big doomers love to swarm these threads and get on their high horse (but are conspicuously absent in threads with good polls for Biden)

Polls consistently underestimate Trump's performances. Coupled with fuel prices staying fairly high and inflation being sticky, and Trump is in an enviable position. I always assume the worst-case scenario as a matter of course.

[GoTfan]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

I'm still very optimistic about the rust belt, but as a native Georgian, I'm very disheartened by the sunbelt polls.

Georgia has been trending blue for years, so I don't get why Trump is leading by even more than he won the state by in 2016 -- or even Mitt Romney's 2012 margin if you buy this poll. I also have no idea where Trump would make up that ground (and I know Georgia's political geography very well) so it's also confounding.

I mean, it's basically all compounded within the nonwhite sample. From what I've seen, most GA polls have Biden at or close to the 30% of white voters he needs to win the state. We've gotten a lot of recent GA polls having Trump only up 1-3, so call me crazy for saying that this is a clear outlier, and any poll that has him up nearly 10 in a swing state is.

Donald Trump's own internal had him up only 4 in Arizona, but we're going to believe he's up 6-9? At some people we need to stop being so overreactive here, but also the big doomers love to swarm these threads and get on their high horse (but are conspicuously absent in threads with good polls for Biden)

Polls consistently underestimate Trump's performances. Coupled with fuel prices staying fairly high and inflation being sticky, and Trump is in an enviable position. I always assume the worst-case scenario as a matter of course.

Well, but if these polls were off as the 2020 polling was to Trump's advantage, he'd be winning the election by more than any other since Reagan's reelection.

They don't have to be off by 2020 margins.

[GoTfan]

Wasn't GoTFan basically trying to convince everyone on election night 2020 that Trump would win Wisconsin and it was a lost cause for Biden? Like, while the votes were still being counted?

As I explained above (that you just decided to ignore) I generally assume the worst case scenario for everything.

[GoTfan]

6 pages… idea we should lock replies in poll threads

I mean the forum is literally called "Talk Elections" these days, isn't discussion of them a good thing?

Only if you're not a 'doomer'.

[GoTfan]

Look, I'm open to changing my mind, but I'm not seeing much that does right now.