EG's State Senate Thread

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I'm working on another MS map and I'll get to CO soon, so I'll be posting those soon.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

(Click for larger version)

1. 55-45 Obama = Lean D
2. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
3. 58-41 Obama = Likely D
4. 54-46 Obama = Tilt D
5. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
6. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
7. 55-44 Obama = Lean D
8. 57-43 Obama = Likely D
9. 54-45 Obama = Tilt D
10. 67-33 Obama = Safe D
11. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
12. 61-39 Obama = Safe D
13. 63-37 Obama = Safe D
14. 55-44 Obama = Lean D
15. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
16. 62-37 Obama = Safe D
17. 58-42 Obama = Safe D
18. 53-47 Obama = Toss-Up
19. 64-36 Obama = Safe D
20. 54-46 Obama = Tilt D
21. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
22. 57-43 Obama = Likely D
23. 55-45 Obama = Lean D
24. 55-44 Obama = Lean D
25. 52-47 Obama = Toss-Up
26. 78-21 McCain = Safe R
27. 54-45 Obama = Tilt D
28. 70-29 McCain = Safe R
29. 77-22 McCain = Safe R
30. 71-28 McCain = Safe R
31. 68-31 Obama = Safe D
32. 64-35 McCain = Safe R
33. 74-25 McCain = Safe R
34. 78-20 McCain = Safe R
35. 63-37 McCain = Safe R
36. 80-20 McCain = Safe R
37. 77-22 McCain = Safe R
38. 81-18 McCain = Safe R
39. 76-23 McCain = Safe R
40. 77-21 McCain = Safe R
41. 82-17 McCain = Safe R
42. 80-20 McCain = Safe R
43. 53-47 Obama = Toss-Up
44. 66-33 McCain = Safe R
45. 78-22 McCain = Safe R
46. 79-20 McCain = Safe R
47. 71-28 McCain = Safe R
48. 72-27 McCain = Safe R
49. 72-26 McCain = Safe R
50. 51-48 McCain = Tilt R
51. 71-28 McCain = Safe R
52. 74-26 McCain = Safe R

27 Obama seats, 25 McCain seats

(Remember that Mississippi swung toward Obama in 2012.  Toss-Up/Tilt D seats would likely go in the Democratic column, especially if we account for Blue Dogs)

Not my best MS map, but I decided to stop at attempt #4 or so.  There's my contribution for the evening.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Also keep in mind an EVEN district in the south is like a mildly D district anywhere else (except probably in the suburbs).

Yeah.  Plus even a >60% McCain district could go D under the right circumstances, but most of my McCain districts are solid R.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Denver:

1. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
2. 57-41 Obama = Likely D
3. 64-35 McCain = Safe R
4. 54-44 Obama = Tilt D
5. 56-42 McCain = Safe R
6. 56-42 Obama = Lean D
7. 56-42 Obama = Lean D
8. 56-42 McCain = Safe R
9. 54-45 Obama = Tilt D
10. 58-41 Obama = Safe D
11. 57-41 Obama = Likely D
12. 54-45 Obama = Tilt D
13. 55-44 McCain = Likely R
14. 57-41 Obama = Likely D
15. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
16. 59-39 Obama = Safe D
17. 60-39 McCain = Safe R
18. 64-35 McCain = Safe R
19. 68-31 McCain = Safe R
20. 61-37 McCain = Safe R
21. 53-45 Obama = Toss-Up
22. 72-27 Obama = Safe D
23. 68-30 Obama = Safe D
24. 82-17 Obama = Safe D
25. 67-31 Obama = Safe D
26. 59-39 Obama = Safe D
27. 60-39 Obama = Safe D
28. 58-41 Obama = Safe D
29. 70-28 Obama = Safe D
30. 60-38 Obama = Safe D
31. 62-36 McCain = Safe R
32. 56-43 McCain = Safe R
33. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
34. 56-42 Obama = Lean D
35. 61-37 Obama = Safe D

24 D, 1 Toss-Up, 10 R

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

36/36 Obama Senate districts in Connecticut!!



1. 64-36 Obama = Safe D
2. 55-44 Obama = Lean D
3. 61-39 Obama = Safe D
4. 58-42 Obama = Safe D
5. 58-42 Obama = Safe D
6. 71-29 Obama = Safe D
7. 78-22 Obama = Safe D
8. 59-40 Obama = Safe D
9. 59-40 Obama = Safe D
10. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
11. 57-41 Obama = Likely D
12. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
13. 52-46 Obama = Tossup
14. 54-45 Obama = Tilt D
15. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
16. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
17. 62-36 Obama = Safe D
18. 64-35 Obama = Safe D
19. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
20. 61-38 Obama = Safe D
21. 58-41 Obama = Safe D
22. 89-11 Obama = Safe D
23. 58-41 Obama = Safe D
24. 58-41 Obama = Safe D
25. 65-34 Obama = Safe D
26. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
27. 59-39 Obama = Safe D
28. 60-38 Obama = Safe D
29. 58-41 Obama = Safe D
30. 64-34 Obama = Safe D
31. 61-38 Obama = Safe D
32. 71-28 Obama = Safe D
33. 84-15 Obama = Safe D
34. 62-37 Obama = Safe D
35. 63-36 Obama = Safe D
36. 55-43 Obama = Tilt D

Obviously, Democrats wouldn't win every seat, but they'd control the chamber by a bit more than 22-14.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I'm trying to challenge myself and make an R gerrymander of the NY Senate, or at least draw a composition that resembles the current Senate, but by the looks of things, the state is going to be at least 2-1 D.  Do state Republicans just naturally do better in D-friendly territory here or something?

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Here we are, kids.  The big, the bad, the ugly...

New York State Senate Republican gerrymander!!!



We begin our tour of the "new" New York in the Upstate region, where Republicans make inroads in just about every corner of the map!


From North Country to Central New York...

1. 51.7-46.8 Obama (Dev: -15,473)
2. 51.4-46.8 Obama (Dev: -26,367)
3. 50.6-47.6 McCain (Dev: -20,393)
4. 51.3-46.8 Obama (Dev: -24,791)
5. 49.4-49.3 McCain (Dev: -26,814)
6. 74.9-23.8 Obama (Dev: -32,988)
7. 49.5-41.1 McCain (Dev: -26,536)


...to Finger Lakes and Western New York.

8. 51.2-47.2 McCain (Dev: -21,985)
9. 50.2-48.3 Obama (Dev: -30,260)
10. 77.4-21.2 Obama (Dev: -7,889)
11. 50.8-47.5 Obama (Dev: -9,462)
12. 49.3-49 Obama (Dev: -16,433)
13. 52.2-46 McCain (Dev: -32,605)
14. 50.4-48.2 McCain (Dev: -19,578)


Southern Tier, Capital District, and Hudson Valley...

15. 51.8-46.5 Obama (Dev: -25,155)
16. 52.5-45.6 Obama (Dev: -32,477)
17. 53.4-44.7 Obama (Dev: -19,926)
18. 54.8-43.6 Obama (Dev: -8,631)
19. 51.1-47.2 Obama (Dev: -14,443)
20. 64.2-33.9 Obama (Dev: 13,641)
21. 54.3-43.7 Obama (Dev: -4,395)
22. 52.4-46.3 Obama (Dev: -10,284)
23. 55.6-42.9 Obama (Dev: -14,115)


Hudson Valley close-up...

24. 54.5-44.4 Obama (Dev: 12,814)
25. 52.8-46.4 Obama (Dev: -16,712)
26. 59.1-40 Obama (Dev: 24,592)
27. 63.9-35.3 Obama (Dev: 15,346)
28. 69-30.3 Obama (Dev: 32,806)


...and of course, New York City.

(Showing the numbers would make this a sloppy mess, but most of these districts are, as you would expect, overwhelmingly pro-Obama)

29. 70.1-29.4 Obama (Dev: -15,098)
30. 88.8-10.9 Obama (Dev: 33,460)
31. 86.9-12.7 Obama (Dev: 15,384)
32. 90.8-8.6 Obama (Dev: 25,381)
33. 96.6-3.1 Obama (Dev: 21,188)
34. 89.3-9.9 Obama (Dev: 37,057)
35. 86.1-12.8 Obama (Dev: 31,463)
36. 87.2-11.8 Obama (Dev: 33,518)
37. 77.3-21.8 Obama (Dev: -4,434)
38. 87.4-12.1 Obama (Dev: 3,200)
39. 80.4-18.5 Obama (Dev: 11,395)
40. 92.4-7.2 Obama (Dev: 18,096)
41. 89.3-10.1 Obama (Dev: 17,478)
42. 94.3-5.5 Obama (Dev: 28,287)
43. 95.6-4.3 Obama (Dev: 13,690)
44. 82.8-16.7 Obama (Dev: 14,705)
45. 88.7-11 Obama (Dev: -38,497)
46. 75.2-24.1 Obama (Dev: -17,257)
47. 71.6-27.6 Obama (Dev: -6,611)
48. 65-34.3 Obama (Dev: 5,251)
49. 70.6-28.8 Obama (Dev: -1,553)
50. 66.4-32.9 Obama (Dev: -28,121)



51. 52.7-46.5 Obama (Dev: 16,167)
52. 55-44.3 McCain (Dev: 5,288)
53. 51.6-47.5 McCain (Dev: 25,374)
54. 51.4-47.9 Obama (Dev: 30,009)
55. 52.6-46.7 Obama (Dev: 900)
56. 52.2-47.1 Obama (Dev: 25,535)
57. 51.1-48 McCain (Dev: -9,877)
58. 50.1-49 Obama (Dev: 24,870)



59. 50-49.2 McCain (Dev: -5,314)
60. 53.9-45.2 Obama (Dev: 4,300)
61. 51.3-47.7 Obama (Dev: 22,547)
62. 53.4-45.6 Obama (Dev: 20,706)


So, in keeping with the spirit of the real gerrymander, Upstate NY is grossly overrepresented while NYC is grossly underrepresented.  As far as the state of the Senate goes, Obama's numbers in the state are a poor indicator of how portions of the state might elect its state representatives, as cinyc and muon have pointed out.  It is also important to note that the State Senate had been controlled by Republicans since 1964 prior to the 2008 election in which the Democrats finally won a narrow majority in the chamber.  (The Democrats would later relinquish control of the Senate to the GOP in June of the following year due to a leadership crisis.)

So, going based on the composition of the map and accounting for local trends, I will estimate that the Republicans would hold anywhere from 30 to 36 seats, plus the bipartisan coalition of Independent Democrats, giving the GOP a healthy and competitive standing in the upper chamber.  I'm interested in hearing what others think.

Isn't New York politics interesting?