Not the best analysis here in my opinion.
No poll is going to have perfect cross tabs. Go look up any poll that nailed the 2022 results. I guarantee you’ll find unrealistic cross tabs.
Many here are saying Trump can’t win Texas by 11 with no reason other than their priors are that Texas should be close. Atlas loves competitive Texas. Part of it is Dem bias and part of it is obsession with trends.
I’m no Trump fan and I too am skeptical of him winning Texas by double digits but a lead of 11% in a poll with a democrat-friendly electorate is an unambiguous good sign for him. Most of atlas thought Abbott was vulnerable in summer 2022 and thought he’d win by single digits up until Election Day.
As far what it would look like, just take Abbott’s coalition and knock a few points off college ed whites and add a few points to non-college voters. Or take a uniform shift of 5 points from 2020 which is what most polls are showing. Or assume minority turnout tanks from 2020. It’s not that crazy. Every statewide race was decided by nearly 11 points in 2022.
Ken Paxton literally won by almost 10 pts and he's a worse candidate than Cruz and possibly Trump lol
