I have a theory about why Trump performed better than expected with these voters (and to a lesser extent Black voters). I think it is covid policy related. Black/Latino folks were more likely to be economically impacted by covid lockdowns and stricter control on what is open and closed, the jobs reports showed that black/latinos were disproportionally more likely to be unemployed as the aftermath of covid than whites. I think these voters may have seen Biden as a more "pro-lockdown" candidate and voted for Trump due to perceived economic impact on them. This is slightly supported by downballot democrats doing slightly better than Biden in RGV.
Specifically schools closing
