2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

And I'll say again, these people have learned nothing. Even selzer was five points off in 2018
NC should be lean D at this point too by that logic. And unlike Ernst, Tillis hasn't gotten 50 in a single poll

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL!!!! MN-01 is not flipping even in a double digit popular vote win. On the flipside, TX 10 and PA 01 should be Tossup. The turnout in Harris county is through the roof and that is not a good sign for McCaul. PA-01 could stay R but Wallace was an exceptionally bad candidate

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Republicans primarily on the defensive now in the House. Including spending millions on defending "Safe" "moderates" in CA-25 and PA-01. Nice to see!

The sheer lack of defense they're putting into Texas seats like 2, 3, 6, 25, and 31 is just stunning. It's hubris. They must really think 2018 was some fluke, which is straight delusional when the places that caused those massive swings are already logging more votes than they did in 2018 (Williamson, Travis, Tarrant, Collin, Harris)

Yeah, because it's not like Dan Crenshaw is lacking for money.

Ok, but the other seats? Are they seriously delusional enough to think Williamson County's 2018 result was a fluke? That seat is flying so under the radar it's not even funny.

Because you see, John Carter is running against Donna Imam, who's a weak candidate ^tm and ToO fAr To ThE lEfT /s

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Inside Elections' no Tossup ratings. 29 moves towards Democrats and 1 move towards Republicans.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/10/28/rating-changes-texas-georgia-election-outlook-continues-to-swing-toward-democrats/

Senate races
Alaska (Dan Sullivan, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Georgia (David Perdue, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Georgia (Kelly Loeffler, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
House races

Arkansas’ 2nd (French Hill, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Colorado’s 3rd (Open; Scott Tipton, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
Georgia’s 6th (Lucy McBath, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Indiana’s 5th (Open; Susan W. Brooks, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Iowa’s 1st (Abby Finkenauer, D): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Iowa’s 2nd (Open; Dave Loebsack, D): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Minnesota’s 1st (Jim Hagedorn, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Missouri’s 2nd (Ann Wagner, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Nebraska’s 2nd (Don Bacon, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
New Jersey’s 2nd (Jeff Van Drew, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
New Jersey’s 3rd (Andy Kim, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)
New Jersey’s 7th (Tom Malinowski, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
North Carolina’s 8th (Richard Hudson, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
North Carolina’s 11th (Vacant; Mark Meadows, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Ohio’s 1st (Steve Chabot, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Pennsylvania’s 17th (Conor Lamb, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)
Texas’ 2nd (Daniel Crenshaw, R): from Likely Republican to Solid Republican (off the board)
Texas’ 3rd (Van Taylor, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Texas’ 10th (Michael; McCaul, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Texas’ 24th (Open; Kenny Marchant, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Virginia’s 2nd (Elaine Luria, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Virginia's 5th (Open; Denver Riggleman, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Washington’s 3rd (Jaime Herrera Beutler, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Wisconsin’s 3rd (Ron Kind, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)

Agree with most of these except TX-02 and MN-01

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Waste of money. I won't shed a tear when Cheri Bustos inevitably loses in 2022

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01