FL-SEN(Quinnipiac): Nelson +7

[john cage bubblegum]

It's an outlier for now, but we were getting so many tied results that it was really looking like herding.
  
It's reasonable to keep this race as a toss-up based on the polling, but I consider Nelson a pretty heavy favorite to win.  In this sort of a race, Florida is almost always going to go as the national environment goes, especially with Nelson as the incumbent in a wave midterm.