OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[john cage bubblegum]

There are 7 days of absentee voting left, and historical trends suggest that the number of "Other" ballots should dramatically increase in the closing days. Also, there are typically a lot of in person Democratic ballots cast on Saturday and Sunday before the election, the only weekend days when in person early voting is open. Hard to say exactly where O'Connor is going to end up in the early vote, but I think it is likely he ends up winning it 20+ (though the Democratic registration edge may well be lower than that by election day).

Thank you for the regular updates on the OH-12 early vote.  Funny, I was about to ask if there were any tendencies when early voting access is expanded, with additional hours in the final week and weekend voting in that final weekend.

I would guess the extension of early voting hours from 5pm to 7pm during the final week would increase the EV numbers overall, but not with a significant change in the partisan tendencies of the voters.

[john cage bubblegum]

It's a tie ...

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_oh_080118/

Yep, looks like 46-45 Balderson in their "standard" turnout model, and 46-45 O'Connor in the "Dem surge" model.  This one is coming down to the wire!

[john cage bubblegum]

This poll also seems like a reminder that we need to be careful when trying to estimate O'Connor's lead in the early vote just based on party registration.  This sample is 47R-26D on party registration, a testament to how traditionally Republican OH-12 is, and also how well O'Connor is doing among indies.  So a Dem edge of 10 points in early voting share could easily translate to a 20+ point O'Connor lead, although it's no guarantee.  Of course it also matters how high the Other early vote share is.

[john cage bubblegum]

If you throw out the "Other" early vote in Franklin, Dems had a 49 point advantage.  For O'Connor to improve upon that by 12 points is impressive.  Doesn't mean he's going to win, but it's very nice to see.

[john cage bubblegum]

Licking EV split for Balderson 3315-3204. Consistent with 50/50 split of Indy’s if they held their bases.

Repubs had a +500 vote advantage in early vote in Licking.  O'Connor's doing a bit better than 50/50 among indies there, if not wildly better.

[john cage bubblegum]

It looks like O'Connor won the early vote by 27 points, a very impressive 16.5 point improvement on the +10.5% Dem advantage in early vote partisanship.  Again doesn't mean O'Connor will win, but he's clearly getting his fair share of indies and some moderate Rs.

[john cage bubblegum]

Really, it looks like we're right around the 50/50 benchmarks for the non-Franklin/Delaware portions of the district.  It's really just going to come down to Delaware, and if O'Connor can keep blowing it out Franklin.

[john cage bubblegum]

If Delaware County continues like this, Balderson is in pretty good shape for a narrow victory.  But we don't know where those precincts came from.  So it's not over quite yet - but I'd definitely rather be Balderson at this point.

[john cage bubblegum]

They were VERY heavy R rural

I suspected that might have been the case.  This isn't over yet by any means.

[john cage bubblegum]

Basically, this race is going to be a < 0.5% margin either way.  That's yet another terrible result for Republicans in a district that shouldn't be competitive.

It'll be slightly disappointing if Balderson ekes it out, but Dems should take this as another very positive sign re: the national environment come November.

[john cage bubblegum]

Ouch, that last batch of Delaware precincts hurts.  Looks like Balderson is going to pull through, but it may not be over depending on where the remaining precincts are.

[john cage bubblegum]

For the people saying it's over, do you know exactly what precincts are out in Delaware?  I mean I'd much rather be Balderson right now, but this is nail-bitingly close.  What's with the weird obsession of declaring such a tight race as over?

[john cage bubblegum]

The provisional ballots are not gonna save O'Connor. People saying "it's over" ought to keep saying it as long as there's posters who believe there's a golden box of absentees waiting to be picked up in Franklin County.

It's fair at this point to say that this is a Balderson win.  What some of us were critcizing was declaring a race over when there was still a lot of Delaware Co. out, with no real knowledge of what precincts had yet to be counted.

Basically, this is the reverse of PA-18, an absolute coinflip that appears to have landed in favor of the GOP this time.  But as IceSpear said, these are not districts you want to be coinflips, especially when you consider that these specials are not low turnout exceptions.  200k people voted in OH-12 and PA-18; that's midterm level turnout.

[john cage bubblegum]

It looks like one of the major keys for Balderson's narrow win was really getting a huge margin out of his home county.  Just looking at the 2016 presidential margin, O'Connor more or less hit his benchmarks in the rural counties, with the significant exception of Muskingum. 

Now, I imagine that the O'Connor campaign was expecting this to some degree, and they probably hoped for a slightly better margin in Franklin and Delaware.