If ever a Republican was going to win NJ in a reasonably close election, it would be 2004, and Bush still lost it by 7 points.
Right now the non-white coalition of voters in NJ is simply too much for a Republican presidential candidate to overcome in a Northern state, where the white vote is competitive. A Democrat is never going to get 20-25% of the white vote in NJ, which is how Republicans overcome these minority coalitions in the South.
I suppose it could happen in a 8-10 point Trump blowout where Trumps makes inroads with Latinos, but that just isn't happening.
You're thinking of Trump like he's a Republican. You're thinking of this like it's an ordinary campaign, where Hillary and the Democrats can target ads at minorities about the terrible things Trump has said and get them to come out and vote against him. This won't work against Trump. Trump's campaign is national, it's using the media to his advantage, and it's a totally different thing. Do not underestimate the way the Trump campaign can manipulate the media and the voting public.
Nothing is off the table.
Trump is certainly an unconventional Republican candidate, but as we can see with overtures he's been making lately, ultimately he is going to represent the Republican Party. And we're now seeing that in national polls where Republicans have consolidated.
I think Latino voters will be extra motivated to vote against Trump. But even if they aren't, even if they turnout and vote at normal rates for Hillary, it's more than enough to keep NJ blue.
That isn't to say that Trump can't win the overall election; he most certainly can. It's just to say that he can't win NJ except in a landslide.
