2018 Australian election predictions

[Lachi]

TAS: March 3: LAB-GRN COALITION (Labor gain chamber from the Liberals)
LAB: 11
LIB: 10
GRN: 3
JLN: 1

SA, March 17: HUNG PARLIAMENT
Lab: 21
SA-BEST: 13
LIB: 12
IND: 1

VIC, November 24: LABOR MAJORITY

LAB: 56, Lose Richmond to the Greens, gain Morwell from the Nats (now an independent), and gain Bass, Bayswater, Box Hill, Burwood, Caulfield, Eildon, Forest Hill, Mount Waverley, Ringwood, Ripon, and S. Barwon from the Libs.

L/NP: 26 (19 Lib, 7 Nat)

GRN: 4, they repeat their By-election victory in Northcote, Gain Richmond from Labor

IND: 1, Sheed is safe here in Shepparton; Independents always get a swing towards them in their re-election, especially popular independents, and Nationals discontent is still present in terms of state politics in Shepparton.

[Lachi]

I've changed the thread name, because I wanted to add my initial rating for the Batman by-election.

My rating is Lean GRN gain

Also the By-election in the WA assembly seat of Cottesloe is going to be a safe LIB retain.

[Lachi]

On current polling trends this could be the result in SA tomorrow:

LAB: 29.6%
LIB: 30.7%
SA-BEST: 22.2%
GRN: 6.8%
OTH: 10.5%

I've worked out a possible scenario using preference flows from 2016. If those flows were to be repeated tomorrow, this would be the chamber:

LAB: 18
SA-BEST: 15
LIB: 12
IND:1

[Lachi]

50-52% Labor 2PP would probably still not be enough for them to win government anyway. the Libs will almost certainly hold onto government in NSW next year, although I'm not sure they'll win the 2PP.

In Victoria, I think that there will be a regional swing against Labor in the West, but they obviously will not lose anything because all the seats in that region are so damn safe for Labor. I think Labor will be in the mid to high 40s, with liberals in the low 30s, Nats maybe losing Morwell, and the Greens picking up Richmond. Sheed will also hold on in Shepparton, even with both the Liberals and Nationals running.

[Lachi]

My seats to watch will be the ones on the Frankston line (If the libs are making gains here, Labor is in trouble), Shepparton (because I live there), and probably Richmond and Brunswick (It'll be interesting to see how the Greens do here). This list will obviously be changing as the year goes on, but I think this is a good start for me.

[Lachi]

How much do you think the Upcoming Vic and Federal budgets will impact polling in their respective races?