538 Model Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 85456 times)
Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,358
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -5.47
« on: August 09, 2016, 05:17:01 PM »
Can anyone see the now-cast at the moment? The site breaks for me when I try to get to it.
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Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,358
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -5.47
« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2016, 08:48:41 AM »
Good analysis, but I probably would have implied that it was based on the national average by putting something like that in the title, since it might confuse some people.
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Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,358
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -5.47
« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2016, 07:16:19 PM »
Quote from: Figueira on September 05, 2016, 06:17:04 PM
How is red IA to the left of blue ME-02 on the path to 270 chart?
All these junk Landline-only polls messing with the average.
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Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,358
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -5.47
« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2016, 10:48:58 PM »
Guys, remember that even though he added all 50 polls, he weighted them in Trumps favor.

Nate Silver wants a horse race confirmed
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Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,358
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -5.47
« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2016, 09:07:59 PM »
Quote from: rafta_rafta on October 01, 2016, 05:28:31 PM
Does Trump have a path without PA, VA and NC?
he MUST win all of these states in this scenario:
FL, OH, WI, CO, IA, NV, and NH

in other words, realistically no.
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Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,358
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -5.47
« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2016, 02:27:31 PM »
AZ IS NOW BLUE IN THE POLLS-ONLY!!!
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Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,358
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -5.47
« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2016, 05:14:23 AM »
538 rolling with transit strike=lower turnout bullsh**t:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-transit-strike-in-philly-could-lower-turnout-among-black-and-poor-voters/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
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Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,358
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -5.47
« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2016, 07:08:03 PM »
Quote from: Meclazine on November 07, 2016, 06:08:10 PM
News.com.au predicts a Trump win:

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/why-trump-could-really-win-this/news-story/8e4bd4e6f5a65434724702ed8c8f221f

"one of the most respected pollsters in the United States, Nate Silver"

Haha. Told you top of Google meant something.

Expected from a right-leaning website.
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