GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[UWS]

In my opinion this race is Likely D.
You've got the natural trends in Georgia, the personal popularity of Warnock, the infighting in the Republican Party there (non-Trumpists vs Trumpists), the good polling, the terrible image of the voter suppression laws (water bottles) likely alienating moderates, and the way the economy and baseline factors like that are likely to be decent for the Dems in 2022.

The Republicans can in theory win the race, but everything needs to fall right for them.

I honestly think the runoff law/50%+1 rule is a better argument for rating this Lean D (not Likely) than any of the things you listed. It may be less difficult than we think for someone like Walker to win a very narrow plurality in the first round, but I maintain that people underestimate how much of an uphill battle any runoff election will be for the GOP here. If they want to beat Warnock, they have to do it in November.

Disagree here. The runoff makes it Lean R, not Lean D. There's no guarantee Warnock's base will show up for a second straight January runoff.

Both sides probably have to win in November in reality, but Republicans are still better positioned to win a hypothetical runoff.

On the other hand, if the race were to be decided in November with someone getting over 50%, that someone would probably be Warnock.

That means the GOP may need at least one of their candidates to appeal among more conservative/moderate Democrats in order to keep Warnock from reaching 50 % in November, thus ensuring a runoff.

[UWS]

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1564940868737433602

Got this ad today, pretty well done. Will hit home with suburban women especially.

The reason Warnock keeps trying to attack Walker on this issue is because he wants to obscure his story of mistreating his wife. In fact, as stated in this attack ad, his wife said, quote, "I have tried to keep the way that he acts under wraps for a long time."

Warnock hit his wife with a car after an argument, after which the police was called. Earlier this year, Warnock was accused of neglecting his own children by failing to meet their financial needs.

"Despite being worth $800 000 and making $774 000 every year from taxpayers, when officials attempted serve him papers, Warnock ran from the process server."

As his wife says "he is a great actor".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuBu4O74glI