Mexican Elections 2017-18

[Bojicat]

I contend that AMLO will not make it to the end. A deep state DOES exist in Mexico, made up of the same military/police/intelligence agency complex that undid Morsi in Egypt. The Mexican deep state loathes AMLO and will unleash every cryptic, underhanded deed it can on him.

The AMLO wave will recede (by hook or by crook).

The real race will be between those two dissolute, venal parties every Mexican loves to hate and dreads having to choose between, the PAN & the PRI. The swell of distaste for Pena Nieto (and his party) is quite heavy (if you live in Mexico, you've probably heard an earful).  I predict this distaste, this urge for something "new' (i.e., a switch from one breakable musical chair to another), will be enough to send ANAYA to Los Pinos this year.

[Bojicat]

For some reason Predictit did not get the memo that PRI will nominate Meade and not Chong.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3894/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Mexico-in-2018

I also find it funny that Predictit has Zavala odds a bit better than Anaya when she is polling in the single digits.  To be fair this is surprising to me as well.  When she started her independent run I figured she could put a vote share at least in the low teens.

   

Funny that you should bring that up, Jaichind, because I am the one who's been writing comments on Predict-It with regard to the very facts you mention above (do you also comment on Predict-It?). The clerks at Predict-It have not kept up with developments for about three months now. Someone is asleep at the wheel there. Atlas commentators seem more 'with-it'. We should be proud of that fact.

I'll tell all readers now, AMLO will NOT be President of Mexico. You can all ridicule me, and tear me down later if I am wrong all you please, but the 'resistance' machinery here is strong. In fact, if Meade and the PRI sense a 3rd-place position is looming for them, and AMLO appears to be touching the brass ring, they'll boost up ANAYA faster than an electro-charge.

They would rather bury AMLO in Chapultepec Forest than see him enthroned there.

[Bojicat]

By the way, Jaichind. I borrowed your very good El Universal poll and used your smart comment about ZAVALA in Predict-It. I owe you a finders fee.

[Bojicat]

I am surprised at how badly Meade is doing and that we seem to be headed toward a re-run of 2006.  Meade is nowhere as unpopular as Madrazo was.  I have to imagine some sort Meade recovery as the headlines move away from all those PRI ex-governor scandals.

Also without knowing much I think if Anaya thinks he can dispose of Meade in the polls and then face off with AMLO and win just like Calderón did in 2006 he might be in for a surprise.  The issue here is that Anaya has shown himself to be a ruthless political operator.  The PRI machine in the North had no problems backing Calderón in 2006 to stop AMLO because they figured Calderón was not a threat to their existence whereas AMLO was.  They might view Aanya differently given his track record so far and it is far from assured that they will back Anaya to stop AMLO.  It might end up being the other way around especially when it seems AMLO learned his lesson from 2006 and this time around show he is willing to work with the establishment.  In other words Anaya seems to think he will get to run against Lula 1994 when he might be getting Lula 2002 as his main opponent.

It is not the PRI governor scandals. The biggest scandal is EPN himself, anyway, and that is not going away. But the main thing is that Meade has tried to square the impossible: he is far too PANista for PRI, but too PRIista for PAN-PRD. They tried to play it by the PRI handbook, with all the pageant of the dedazo, and it sounded fake for the PRIistas - and it poisoned it all for the PANistas. I daily exist in the circle, which should be the natural base of support for Meade - he is not catching on. People who should be jumping up and down, his friends and peers, increasingly speak out in favor of Anaya. There is still a bubble around the candidate himself, in the government, within which it seems they are doing well - but even that is getting thin.

Anaya is a ruthless operator, sure. He killed of, in sequence, calderonistas, Madero, Zavala,  PRDistas and is about to dispatch Meade. But he presents no obvious threat to the PRI machine in the North - it is not like he is taking it over. AMLO would, if given any chance: so, yes, he is dangerous. It is more that big chance of PRI machine will, in fact, be susceptible to move to AMLO side - capturing parts of the machine has been his way of operating since he split from the PRI all those decades ago. AMLO is a "real" PRIista - he knows how talk that language. Anaya does not (nor does Meade).

The mistake people are making is identifying PRIista machine with the technocrats - the two have very little in common. On occasion they are allies. But the real PRI machine has a lot more in common (both ideologically and in their approach to politics) with AMLO than with either PAN or to the technocrats. PRI is in its origin, like Morena, a national socialist party. And those national socialist views are still remarkably strong among the party operators. This is precisely why AMLO is much more dangerous for PRI than Anaya could ever be.

Absolutely good points, AG.

And the symbol of the 'dedazo' is just killing the PRI. It smells like authoritarian, back-door, oligarchic, anti-democratic scheming to the public (which, by the way, it really is).

I would somewhat differ on your characterization of Anaya being a 'ruthless operator'. Sure, he's a clever cookie, but at 39 years old, he's still comparatively naive (at least compared to, say, AMLO). He's a politico who scraped up the internal party walls with his bare hands and wits. He still needs to cut more of his (still rather young) chops before we dare dub him ready to join Machiavelli's table.
 
He'll need to hacer sus pinitos as is said in Spanish, but I'm predicting that his personality, his lack of fire-breathing, is what will endear him to Mexico.

[Bojicat]

Same El Financiero poll has data on vote for Lower House and Senate by party where it is a lot closer



If you add up the votes by alliance you get

Lower House
MORENA-PT-PES      33
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     29
PAN-PRD-MC           29

Senate
MORENA-PT-PES      32
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     30
PAN-PRD-MC           29

Which comes out to a 3 way tie.  I guess a lot of marginal PRI and PRD voters are voting AMLO for Prez but voting with their party in the Congressional vote.

Thanks, Jaichind, for your always helpful and wonderful supply of charts and micro-data. 

Do you think it also possible that marginal PRI and PRD voters are in reality paying pollsters lip service to the phenomenon-de-jour which is AMLO, joining in his adulation carnival, then will, in the end, fall-in with the established party (and party leader) they've been stubbornly voting for all of their lives?