Georgia

[TheresNoMoney]

Based on the outstanding early voting returns, I think Obama has a 50% chance to win Georgia on Tuesday.

[TheresNoMoney]

You're out of your mind if you think the early voting numbers will hold.  You're in for a rude awakening if you're this optimistic.

I'm not out of my mind at all. Of course the early voting numbers won't hold completely, but you have to remember that almost 2 million people have already voted and total turnout probably won't be more than 4 million. And in my best estimate, Obama has a 4%-8% lead over John McCain in early voting.

So think of it this way: 50% of the votes in Georgia have been counted and Obama has a 4%-8% lead.  Don't you think it may be hard for McCain to make up that deficit in the final 50%?

[TheresNoMoney]

John Kerry got 24% of the white vote in GA in 2004. Rasmussen has Obama getting 26% of the white vote in their most recent poll. With the bad economic times favoring Obama, I think he outperforms Kerry and will get a minimum of 26% of the white vote (probably more).

Let's do the calcuation, and I'll try to be on the conservative side for Obama:

11/2/08 breakdown of early voters (1.99 million total)

Black Voters:  35.08% @ 94% = 32.98%
White Voters: 60.20% @ 26% = 15.65%
Other Voters:   4.72% @ 65%  =  3.07%

Total Obama Estimated Early Vote = 51.7%

Total McCain Estimated Early Vote = roughly 44.61%

In my best estimate, Obama has a minimum lead of 4% right now and maximum lead of 9% or 10%. My best estimate is a 7% lead (shown above). And it should be remembered that Bob Barr will probably get 1%-3% of the vote in Georgia, which could be the difference in who wins or loses.

[TheresNoMoney]

Perhaps you should see a doctor.

Perhaps you should actually look at the numbers I posted.  I'm not just making a wild prediction, the numbers back me up.

[TheresNoMoney]

I still cannot believe that people believe that former Congressman Barr is actually going to receive 3% of the vote in Georgia.

I said 1%-3% of the vote, probably closer to 1%. It will be a very small amount, but possibly enough to tip the race to Obama. And I honestly don't think the black vote will drop all that much on Election Day, they're extremely motivated to vote for Obama.