NH-Rasmussen: Obama leads by 11%

[TheresNoMoney]

6/18/08, 500 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4%

Obama    50%
McCain    39%

Link

[TheresNoMoney]

Not surprisingly, women and independents in my state are going big for Obama.

[TheresNoMoney]

Well, I remember when the last poll before the Dem NH primary showed Obama ahead of Hillary by a big margin and look what happened.

All the undecideds broke to Hillary the last 2 days before the election. That's what happened. 

The poll wasn't as bad as people made it out to be.

[TheresNoMoney]

Though both Obama and McCain both play well in New Hampshire considering the political makeup of New Hampshire, I would have thought that Obama would either be leading McCain by anywhere between 2-5 points, not 11 points.

You have to remember that Republicans used to have a huge registration advantage in NH that has been steadily eroding over the past 15-20 years.  Now in 2008, the parties have approximately equal registrations (about 31% each) while indepedents make up a huge 38%.

The key is that independents in NH are quite liberal/libertarian leaning. That means socially liberal and very anti-war.  New Hampshire will be a pretty solidly blue state in the very near future.