IN-NBC/WSJ/Marist: D: Clinton 50% Sanders 46%; R: Trump 49% Cruz 34% Kasich 13%

[ashridge]

If this poll is at all accurate (and it might not because it's also a major outlier in the Senate primary), RIP conservative movement.  A Trump win in Indiana would be the worst day in America in years.

You make an interesting point about why it might be an outlier. The WHTR/Howey IN poll early this week showing Trump over Cruz by 6, showed Young over Stutzman in the IN GOP U.S. Senate primary by 12. Well, this NBC/WSJ poll showing Trump over Cruz by 15 shows Young over Stutzman by 32! That's a 20 point greater lead by Young than in the other poll in the same week. That seems....unlikely.

[ashridge]

Oh yeah, one other reason to think the NBC/WSJ poll might be an outlier: It shows Trump beating both Clinton (easily) AND Sanders H2H in Indiana in November. That also seems....unlikely.

[ashridge]

Oh yeah, one other reason to think the NBC/WSJ poll might be an outlier: It shows Trump beating both Clinton (easily) AND Sanders H2H in Indiana in November. That also seems....unlikely.

Not really.  The voting base of Southern Indiana seems like a good fit for Trump.

I don't doubt that. But when polls show Trump in danger of losing Utah and Mississippi and North Carolina, and Arizona (and many more) to Clinton in a General, I have a hard time believing he's going to beat her by 8 in Indiana.