Gallup says Kerry 49 Bush 48 likely (user search)
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  Gallup says Kerry 49 Bush 48 likely (search mode)
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Author Topic: Gallup says Kerry 49 Bush 48 likely  (Read 18032 times)
A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

« on: October 11, 2004, 02:06:39 PM »

I hope Bush loses the PV and wins the EV again, just to make all the anti- electoral college people made.  :-)

Any news out of Ohio?
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2004, 02:12:45 PM »

It's a Saturday/Sunday poll. He probably is (slightly above) 50.
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2004, 02:17:29 PM »

Even if it's subconsciously, I think the majority of people who saw that debate got a better impression of Bush.
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2004, 02:25:28 PM »

HockeyDude, it's a well known fact that Republicans do worse in the polls on weekends.
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2004, 04:19:55 PM »

It's probably due to the fact that Republicans have lives (I happen to be one of the exceptions)
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2004, 07:47:58 PM »



Looks plausible to me. Though Michigan would have to be an upset.
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2004, 08:29:31 PM »

Whatever the exact numbers are at the moment, the fact seems to be that Bush has clearly lost all momentum, and there will have to be some major "October Surprise" to change the dynamic.  I do a little volunteering for Bush/Cheney in Wisconsin and you can't overestimate just how much damage that first debate did to the President.  Most, if not all, of the enthusiasm is gone now.  We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic and if you're a Kerry supporter, it looks like a lot of good news is ahead for you.

Either you're a troll or a sh**tty campaign volunteer.

Oh and welcome to the site.

hahah.....agreed.  every Bush supporter is feeling fine after debate #2

Not really.  I'd say the mood was cautiously optimistic immediately after the second debate.  The first downer was when none of the snap-polls showed the President had won.  The second downer was hearing some internal numbers, and now the Zogby and Gallup surveys are confirming those internals.  You can go on feeling fine.  It's that lack of urgency that caused the miserable first debate showing.  If Bush had beaten Kerry there, the race was over.  Now it's the President who has to move the numbers...Kerry is in command for at the moment. 

And let's see how fine you feel when the next round of state polling comes out after Wednesday's debate.  If the internals are correct and nothing happens to change the equation, the results out of Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin will show a pretty big turn-around.

Don't you have anything better to do than pretend your a Bush volunteer? Go to DemocraticUnderground or something.
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2004, 09:01:45 PM »

Because you, as a Bush volunteer, would certainly be let in on all the top secrets like an October surprise
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2004, 01:35:07 PM »

I'll take Kerry with 59%, as long as he loses the electoral vote
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2004, 03:37:24 PM »

Kerry was one of the few Democrats running in Massachusetts
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