2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Doimper]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

In the same way that Jim Oberstar and Solomon Ortiz could lose, yeah?

[Doimper]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

In the same way that Jim Oberstar and Solomon Ortiz could lose, yeah?

The PVI for those districts was D+3 and R+2. Clearly potentially vulnerable in a wave.

King's is R+11, and even that probably understates it considering how hard and fast it is trending to the right. Of course, Dems can win R+11 districts if lightning strikes like in PA-18. The thing is, Dems only barely won that one by the skin of their teeth despite having a great candidate running against a dud candidate in an ancestral D area that still had a Democratic registration advantage. Compare that to this district. Heavily Republican with a Republican registration advantage. Now compare the candidates. I don't know who J.D. Scholten is (which says something in and of itself, considering I'm a US Election Atlas Dot Org poster with tens of thousands of posts), but something tells me that he's not Conor Lamb quality. Conor Lambs don't grow on trees. And King is the exact opposite of lame boring dud Rick Saccone. Racist IA Hicks adore Steve King and they'll come out in droves to support him. These are the people that elected him countless times, often with over 60% of the vote, knowing full well he's a Nazi. He can't lose.

That's fair, and I should clarify that I do think that King is the overwhelming favorite to win, but Iowa is notoriously swingy and there's always a few underwhelming challengers that sweep out strong incumbents in waves. If Scholten does pull off the stunner, there will be a few retrospective takes that go something like "It should have been obvious that talk of a 'red wave' lulled the Racist IA Hicks into a false sense of complacency."

[Doimper]

Everything still pointing to a Dem landslide ...

but muh kavanaugh

muh americans being capable of remembering any major political event a month after it happened

[Doimper]

Again, you realize this is apples to oranges because CBS is only looking at selected districts, right?

Wow, look at this lib! So owned!