This is possibly a more devastating run than the track up the middle of the state. The storm will be less weakened by land interaction before it impacts Tampa Bay, so you have (probably?) a category four storm either making a direct landfall or sitting just offshore. The west coast of Florida is situated on a relatively shallow continental shelf, and a storm coming right up the coast will act to shove water into all the little inlets along the coast. Double digit storm surge in Tampa Bay is not a good scenario.
Yup, just got upgraded back up to a Cat 4 right before slamming into the Keys.