absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Desroko]

41,214,095 votes now cast. 5,006,827 votes away from passing 2012's total advance votes.

Wait I thought it was only 32 million early votes in 2012.

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

[Desroko]

Hmm I can't seem to find a clear answer on this. The number of votes cast as of right now based on AP data is 41,214,095. The number listed on electproject.org for 2012 "Total 'Advance' ballots Cast (mail and in-person)" is 46,220,922. However, in electproject.org's final 2012 post, it said "Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 32,311,399".

http://www.electproject.org/2012_early_vote
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Anyone know why there are two different numbers? Could the 46,220,922 number be from absentee ballots and information learned after the election?

Counts are never completed on election night. Compare the 11/6 Georgia advance total of 1.8 on that spreadsheet, to this one on 11/21, which is 1.9. In some states the difference is pretty dramatic.

[Desroko]

Hmm I can't seem to find a clear answer on this. The number of votes cast as of right now based on AP data is 41,214,095. The number listed on electproject.org for 2012 "Total 'Advance' ballots Cast (mail and in-person)" is 46,220,922. However, in electproject.org's final 2012 post, it said "Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 32,311,399".

http://www.electproject.org/2012_early_vote
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Anyone know why there are two different numbers? Could the 46,220,922 number be from absentee ballots and information learned after the election?

The 2012 page looks like it contains numbers at the start of election day in 2012, but not only would there be a lot of ballots received on election day, but some states (I think WA, CA, NY?) allow ballots mailed BY election day to count.

Also, perhaps some states didn't fully report their early vote until after election day.

Right. CA and a few others took a few days to complete, which is why there were article on 11/7 calling it an extremely close election.

[Desroko]

Can someone explain, why you think Florida is in Hillary's pocket??

2012: D 42.9%, R 39.1%, Other 18.1%,         total Dems +170k
2016: D 39.6%, R 39.1%, Other 18.9%,         total Dems   +32k
(today is not included)

I took date from http://www.electproject.org/

Why is so good? Yes, I know many Dixies switched to Reps. Other is more Clinton-friendly. But how does this data implies that Florida is gone for Trump? Probably slightly lean D, but gone?

No entiendo nada

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't a piece of it that the unaffiliated voters were skewing more younger and latino?

Yes, that's most of it. Fewer dixiecats mucking up the registered Dem sample is a smaller piece.