"supporters of Gary Johnson simply aren’t turning out in early voting, according to our polling data. So far, he has just 3 percent of the vote among people who voted early, according to our polling and our modeled data."
I have to be circumspect here, but this is absolutely what I'm seeing. The pattern even shows up in public polling - 3rd party voters are more weakly attached than Dem/GOP, less likely to vote, and most damningly, the ones that are most likely to vote are the same ones that are most weakly attached.
