If Bollier won, would her map be identical to Kelly’s? I think she would win but narrowly lose Sedgwick, Crawford, Harvey, and Lyon but get HUGE margins in JoCo, Shawnee, Douglas and Wyandotte with solid wins in Riley and Leavenworth while improving a fair amount in Latino SW Kansas.
She has a good chance of holding on to Lyon. Harvey and Sedgwick are tossups, and Crawford is always a coin flip (that county makes no sense - how did Obama win *only* it, Douglas, and Wyandotte in 2008?)
She's going to improve over Kelly in SW Kansas, partly from trends and partly by picking up Orman voters (that was his best area of the state), but a lot of that is going to be canceled out by the fact that that's Marshall's district. That's the one thing that worries me. A big part of Kelly's win was how dramatically she was able to cut the margins in the western part of the state. Bollier really needs to run up the margins in the east. I imagine Johnson County won't be an issue, as she's from there, but I hope she's been running lots of ads in Wichita.
We'll see what 2022 holds, but I think Sebelius maps are unfortunately a thing of the past in Kansas (unless she comes back to run for Senate and we try to turn Kansas into another Montana).
Crawford has PSU. Not huge, but a sizeable portion of the counties population considering how rural it is. In comparison to the surrounding counties it'll probably always have a higher D floor with perhaps more persuadable voters.
