The absentee/early vote thread

[indietraveler]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/778326496599429120

Follow IAStartingLine for good analysis in Iowa. Dems are 45% compared to 2012, GOP at 102%. BUT, Dems have delayed sending ballots since their studies show sending it too early confuses people... It could also show lack of enthusiasm.

Party         Today           Then       % Diff

Democrat    43,443    97,001    45%
Republican 15,272    14,909    102%
No Party    16,180    30,083    54%
Other         178          128       139%

He says the ballots have already been sent out for local candidates and they are seeing margins that parallel 2012. It's 99% due to the Clinton campaign waiting a week or two to get them sent. Notice the GOP number is hardly different at this stage. That's the number you have to watch for increased turnout on the GOP side

I've done some reading and yes, Clinton is delaying the absentee campaign, while the GOP is keeping the same schedule, which does explain why the GOP is roughly on par with 2012 and the Dems are behind.

Thanks for the info. As someone who has voted by mail since 2008 I was wondering when I was even going to receive my request notice to send in for a ballot. Mine still hasn't come yet. Those dem numbers should definitely spike then over the next month.

[indietraveler]

I can confirm for Iowa that the democratic party is delaying their early voting process. I've voted early by mail each election since 2008 and just today I finally received my request form in the mail for a vote by mail ballot! I was about to make a call in the next few days to make a request.

[indietraveler]

I wonder what internals are showing for Texas. If Clinton thought she had a chance, why not go for it at this point. At the very least it makes a statement going forward even if she loses the state at the end. Clinton, Kaine, Barack and Michelle each could have made one stop. Are there enough non-voting democrats there to squeak out the win--voters who typically don't participate because Texas is always a red state?

Of course, I say all this with more reservation now thanks to the email situation. I'm sure they're not even thinking about the state at this point.

[indietraveler]

democrats received their ballots later this year in iowa. i know a few people who just received theirs within the last week and are just sending them off now. i got mine way later this year too, but i filled mine out as soon as it came.