LEAN TAKEOVER (1 R, 1 D)
Open; Blanco (D)
Fletcher, (R-KY)
TOSS-UP (1 R, 0 D)
Blunt (R-MO)
NARROW ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT PARTY (1 R, 0 D)
Daniels (R-IN)
CLEAR ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT PARTY (0 R, 2 D)
Gregoire (D-WA)
NC Open (Easley, D)
CURRENTLY SAFE (4 R, 4 D)
Barbour (R-MS)
Douglas (R-VT)
Hoeven (R-ND)
Huntsman (R-UT)
Lynch (D-NH)
Manchin (D-WV)
Schweitzer (D-MT)
DE Open (Minner, D)
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2007/06/2007-08-gubernatorial-ratings.html
I would maybe put Gov. Roy Blunt (R-MO) as a lean Dem.
Yepp. There´s an older poll from late 2006 showing Jay Nixon leading Blunt by double digits. His approvals where very low back then and are now improving, so that it can become closer until next year, but I still think Nixon is favored by 5% then:
"A majority polled also said they would like to replace Gov. Matt Blunt with Attorney General Jay Nixon. 52 percent favor Nixon, a Democrat who has announced his plans to run for governor in 2008; 39 percent support Blunt, a Republican who still has two years remaining in his term."
http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2006/09/04/poll-shows-race-between-talent-mccaskill-even/
The most recent polls that show Blunts approval up is usually natural. Missourians tend to forgive quickly. but it is likely Jay Nixon will unseat Matt Blunt.
Blunt is more unpopular in the suburban areas , exactly where republicans need to rank up margins.
54% is probably the ceiling for either candidate, though.
