A McCain victory makes retaking the Senate almost impossible

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'll go with that.  I can see the GOP losing a net of 2 seats for the 111th Senate, no matter who is their nominee for President.  I'm going to go ahead and give them Louisiana, depending on what happens with Governor Kathleen Blanco this November, but I'll give Colorado, New Hampshire, and Minnesota to the Democrats.  That would be a net loss of 2 for the Republicans, and give the Democrats a 53-47 majority for the 111th Senate in 2009-2010.  If Guiliani or Romney happen to be the nominee, then I could see New Hampshire staying GOP, but thats a big if.  I give NH a 40% chance of staying GOP without Rudy or Mitt, and a 60% chance with either of them.  If McCain is the nominee, I could see Colorado potentially staying GOP, but still not likely.  If Huckabee or Brownback is the nominee, then all three will definitely go Democrat.  Right now, until I see formidable candidates, I'll keep Mississippi and Oklahoma with the GOP, but with the knowledge they both could switch, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of 4 and a 55-45 majority.