What % chance does Trump have of winning election?

[i4indyguy]

25% at this point. With error bars encompassing 15-40%. These should shrink even further as we get more frequent polls of battleground states in sept/oct.   We have already passed through many of the events that had the best chance to limit her chances:

The Benghazi report came out. Damage was limited.  Email investigation is over; it hurt bad, but nothing close to fatal for her.  She knocked Bernie out of the race.  Donald cleared the field, and has just been approved as the nominee (i'm working on the presumption that facing Donald is great for her chances).   

If you were following 538 from 2012,  Romneys chances were being pegged at 30-45% for many months (just never managed to become 'on par with' or 'favored'.  However, in the final weeks, even though the polling changed very little, Nates' calculation creeped up into the 80s and was 90% chance of Reelection on the night before If I remember.

25-35% chance seems fair at the moment, but as we get really close, If the polling doesn't change, and we have Hillary leading by ~5% in numberous battleground states, we will have calculations that hill has a 95% chance to win the Pres.   
      Obviously it is possible to have a number this high because of the structural disadvantage the GOP has in the EC.