As much as I would love to see Obama win Virginia (and I think he will in the end), it's not the tipping point state. That would be Colorado. Whoever wins Colorado wins this election.
If Obama wins Virginia (which I don't think he will), and we are assuming that he takes all of John Kerry's 2004 states, then those '04 states, plus Iowa (which I think Obama will win) plus Virginia would give Obama 272 and the win so here Colorado wouldn't be necessary for him.
However, without VA, Obama keeps the '04 blue states, adds IA with CO and NM, that would give him 273 which sees more doable for Obama. After doing this, it makes me miss Tim Russert figuring out who wins on a dry erase board.
