Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[musicblind]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

I take that means Florida is likely lost, then?

[musicblind]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

I take that means Florida is likely lost, then?

No, because a) assume NPAs won’t go big for Rs like they did in 2016 and b) Republicans showed up in large numbers on ED in 2016 and we don’t know what’s going to happen this year.

Thank you for explaining in a respectful, non-condescending, manner. I appreciate that. It was an honest question.

[musicblind]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

I take that means Florida is likely lost, then?

No, because a) assume NPAs won’t go big for Rs like they did in 2016 and b) Republicans showed up in large numbers on ED in 2016 and we don’t know what’s going to happen this year.

Somewhat interestingly in the 2 StPetePolls that includes "already voted"
The St Pete Poll taken Oct 30-31
"Already voted"
Nelson: 53%,
Scott: 45% 

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 45%
Scott: 50%

The St Pete Poll taken Nov 1-2
"Already voted"
Nelson: 51%,
Scott: 47.5% 

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 43%
Scott: 51%

-----------
The Nov 1-2 also included Gov Numbers
The St Pete Poll taken Nov1-2
"Already voted"
Gillum: 52%,
DeSantis: 45% 

"Plan to vote"
Gillum: 43%
DeSantis: 48%


Not sure what to make of these numbers.... some seem a bit iffy.  But it at least gives some "Already Voted" numbers to compare to the Early voting totals to see how much potential crossover/ or Ind vote the Dems are getting.  (Each poll included a little over 2,000 respondents... and the poll was automated).


If anyone has the Day-by-Day EV numbers from Florida... It would be interesting to compare the totals as of October 31st and as of Nov 2nd ... to the "already voted" numbers in the polls.

This is much more helpful, though I'm still not sure how to read these tea-leaves because I'm bad at math.

[musicblind]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

I take that means Florida is likely lost, then?

No, because a) assume NPAs won’t go big for Rs like they did in 2016 and b) Republicans showed up in large numbers on ED in 2016 and we don’t know what’s going to happen this year.

Somewhat interestingly in the 2 StPetePolls that includes "already voted"
The St Pete Poll taken Oct 30-31
"Already voted"
Nelson: 53%,
Scott: 45% 

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 45%
Scott: 50%

The St Pete Poll taken Nov 1-2
"Already voted"
Nelson: 51%,
Scott: 47.5% 

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 43%
Scott: 51%

-----------
The Nov 1-2 also included Gov Numbers
The St Pete Poll taken Nov1-2
"Already voted"
Gillum: 52%,
DeSantis: 45% 

"Plan to vote"
Gillum: 43%
DeSantis: 48%


Not sure what to make of these numbers.... some seem a bit iffy.  But it at least gives some "Already Voted" numbers to compare to the Early voting totals to see how much potential crossover/ or Ind vote the Dems are getting.  (Each poll included a little over 2,000 respondents... and the poll was automated).


If anyone has the Day-by-Day EV numbers from Florida... It would be interesting to compare the totals as of October 31st and as of Nov 2nd ... to the "already voted" numbers in the polls.

This is much more helpful, though I'm still not sure how to read these tea-leaves because I'm bad at math.

[musicblind]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

 

Still won't make a difference in the end. Cruz will win.

Of course, he will. It's Texas. At this point, it's about getting it down to single digit margins as a means of sending a message.

[musicblind]

The hype built up around Beto is unfortunate given the likely outcome. Wish people were more grounded instead of getting so emotionally involved just makes the end result even harder on people.

My sentiments exactly. A lot of people will be having a breakdown on here in just two days, once Cruz is projected as the victor.

I highly doubt anyone on here will be having a breakdown. We are students of the game. Most of us are expert politicos.

If you want to see breakdowns over a Cruz's victory, that's what twitter is for.