Finnish parliamentary election – 14 April 2019

[Aboa]

If Centre, NCP and Finns Party get a majority between them is there a chance that Finns Party will join the other two form an ruling bloc or is the Blue Reform split mean that there is no way that Finns Party will join a Center-Right government ?

Finnish parties tend to avoid setting preconditions for goverment formation but both NCP and SDP have pretty much ruled out cooperating with Finns Party.

Seems like Finland might see a social democratic victory and government? That's certainly something rare in Europe these days

Who would prop up an SDP government?

SDP-Centre-Green League?

Also seems like a "left+regionalists" government might be possible, according to polls SDP+Green League+Swedish People's Party is at 48% so it might just barely be possible if someone falls below the threshold or if polls fail on that direction.

In any case, it seems Finland might be a rare bright spot for the European left.

As Helsinkian noted Centre has long traditions of governing and if it suffers bad setback in elections it might prefer staying in the opposition. SDP-NCP coalition is at least as possible as SDP-Centre one (even though SDP would probably prefer Centre). Finnish coalitions tend to have pretty wide base in a parliament and as a rule usually include at leat two major parties. As likely winners I would expect Greens to be part of any future government, likely together with SPP and maybe Christian Democrats especially if it's SDP-NCP coalition.

[Aboa]

So is there a particular reason for the recent PS surge? Just voters that did not like the party's track record in government coming back at the last minute?

PS's gain seems in the expense of KOK. I wonder whats making people from the more liberal-center right party go towards PS.

According to pollsters most of PS gains come from undecided voters.

[Aboa]

The YLE projection is expected circa 1h30 min to 2h after the polls close.

Why does Finland not do an exit poll or Election Day/early voter survey for poll closing ?

Takes much of the fun away to wait 2 hours for a projection ...

Preliminary votes which are published after the polls close are usually indicative of the final results, the only exit poll in Finland was conducted for the 1994 presidential election and for one reason or other ended being way off.

[Aboa]

The 2 others who would be elected based on early vote are Mats Löfström from Åland islands who will sit with SPP and Harry Harkimo from Liike Nyt.

[Aboa]

How much of the e-day vote as opposed to early is counted by now? Are there usually significant differences between the two?

SDP and especially Centre usually perform worse on election day, NCP and SPP usually better.

[Aboa]

Some more questions:

1. How is the result interpreted in Finland? A repudiation of the right-wing economic policy of the KESK-KOK-PN/SIN govt?

2. Where do the Green and Left gains come from?

3. I get the impression that the SDP electorate is still pretty working-class. Is this why the leadership isn't that "new left" and is even (at least theoretically) open to working with PS under Halla-aho?

1. Mostly yes, though NCP appearing to have good results will probably complicate this, many of the hot takes thus far have focused on the splintering of the party field, this being first time that no party achieves 20% of votes.

2. Most noticeable gains seem to be Green surge in Helsinki.

3. The blue-collar trade union SAK has strong influence on SDP and the current leader Rinne is former union boss, being at least theoretically open towards working with all parties has usually been part of Finnish political culture.

[Aboa]

Seat projection from Iltalehti based on preliminary vote.

SDP      40
NCP      40
FINNS   34
CENT    28
GREEN  26
LEFT     16
SPP      10
CD         5
OTHERS 1

[Aboa]

Thanks! As for 1, it makes sense to me that the main driving force behind this economic policy with the base that would be most inclined to support it (i.e. KOK, of course) isn't punished for it, but its more economic left-wing partners are. With Halla-aho's PS having dissociated itself from the government and its policy for quite a while, it would make sense that KESK pays most of the electoral price - and the SIN people, of course.

For 2, I actually meant to ask from which party these people come. Seems like Center is fatally wounded in Helsinki and NCP are taking a hit as well. I can definitely imagine an NCP -> Green voter.

Greens along with Finns is the party with the most unreliable voters lot of the gains might be people who usually don't vote, I'd imagine same could apply towards the younger Left Alliance electorate.

[Aboa]

YLE projection currently has:

SDP 17.7%
Finns 17.2%
NCP 17.2%

Is there any chance Finns could end up above SDP?

Certainly not impossible, especially in terms of seats.

[Aboa]

Yeah, seems as if PS may gain, not lose. What coalitions with PS and SDP are possible if PS top the poll? Together with KOK will be too right-wing for the SDP, but I doubt the Greens and Left Alliance would be willing to govern with PS... and Center will definitely not go for another round in the government, I suppose, even though SDP-Finns-Center is ideologically compatible.

Even if Finns win most seats I still think SDP (or NCP) ends up forming government without them.

[Aboa]

NCP leader Orpo just seemed to rule out cooperation with Halla-aho.

[Aboa]

First black MP elected; Bella Forsgrén, Green, Central-Finland.

I think that Jani Toivola would regard himself as black, despite having white mother.

[Aboa]

The aforementioned al-Taee has acknowledged and apologized for his earlier even more inflammatory facebook posts about Gays, Jews, Sunnis and Somalis among others. Until now he had tried to imply that the posts might have been doctored.

It's worth noting that al-Taee's father was/is prominent member of (Shia) Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq.