Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

This is the best analysis that I've read so far:

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin-miscalculation/

[pppolitics]

Watching Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine play out, it seems the Russian president has vastly underestimated and misunderstood Ukrainians and their president.

Putin, a one-time KGB operative who in 2004 said “there is no such thing as a former KGB man,” has made clear that he lives in a world of the past. The world that existed before the end of the Cold War, a world in which the territories of the former Soviet Union, potentially even the countries of the former Warsaw Pact, are run out of Moscow. A world he is trying to rebuild today.

But the USSR is not Russia, and when you live in the past, you lose touch with the present.

Putin has lost touch with ordinary Russians, despite exercising immense control over what they watch, listen to and read. But to an even greater degree, Putin has lost touch with what Ukrainians think.

It’s the classic mistake of every tyrant: Surround yourself only with sycophants, suck-ups and yes-men, and you never get a reality check in your echo chamber. Eliminate dissenting politicians, and you assume that means you’ve eliminated dissent.

The decisive moment that sealed Ukraine’s fate may well have been the U.S.-led withdrawal from Afghanistan — a country closely watched by the Kremlin, given its key role in the downfall of the USSR, after the Soviets attempted to invade in 1979, and spent almost a decade fighting a losing battle.

When the West left Afghanistan last year, the speed and success of the Taliban takeover of the country would have delighted Putin. The capitulation of the U.S., the impotence of Europe, and the relative ease with which the militants took control of the Afghan capital within days of the Western retreat made Ukraine seem a tantalizing prospect.

Perhaps Putin thought he’d roll into Kyiv the way the Taliban rolled into Kabul, meeting scant resistance from Ukrainians. He seems to have expected to be welcomed in by Russian-speaking Ukrainians as nostalgic for the Soviet heydays as he is. It seems Putin expected Ukrainians to lay down their arms, and for their pro-Western and NATO President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to flee, making space for one of Moscow’s allies. The Kremlin could roll its tanks back to Russia, taking a sizeable chunk of Ukraine with them, and Putin could declare his bogus “peacekeeping” mission over after a few days. He would take some limited casualties, some painful but not devastating sanctions, and then it would be back to business as usual.

And perhaps if Putin had tried this maneuver during the Ukrainian presidencies of his ally Viktor Yanukovych, or of “chocolate king” billionaire Petro Poroshenko, he might have been able to roll into Kyiv the way the Taliban took Kabul last year.

But Putin underestimated Ukraine. The country’s troops have resisted hard and have largely held their cities against a Russian attempt at blitzkrieg. Kyiv claims that its experienced, motivated soldiers have killed thousands of Russians, downed enemy planes and destroyed hundreds of armored vehicles and tanks.

Putin also underestimated Zelenskiy.

A former comedian and actor with humble roots, Zelenskiy entered politics in 2019 on an anti-corruption campaign, after playing a history teacher elected as president on an anti-corruption platform in the sitcom “Servant of the People.”

Zelenskiy certainly isn’t perfect, but he’s also not cut from the same fabric of oligarchs who made billions in shady business enterprises. His ascent to the presidency seems to have genuinely been driven by a desire to make things better.

Ukraine now has a leader it can believe in, who is vowing to fight on against a military superpower. He’s a democratically elected president who wasn’t a cynical appointee of some other country, who wasn’t someone seeking the presidency to enrich themselves.

Unlike Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani and his government, Zelenskiy didn’t get on the first plane out of Kyiv, despite the clear danger to his life. When Putin talks about decapitating Ukraine’s government, he is not speaking metaphorically. As Zelenskiy himself said in a video posted to social media, the president is Putin’s No. 1 target, and his family the No. 2.

Zelenskiy has stayed in Kyiv, rebuffing reported offers of safety in France and in the U.S. He has donned a khaki T-shirt and jacket.

“We are here. We are in Kyiv. We are defending Ukraine,” Zelenskiy said in a video published on Telegram Friday night and shot in Kyiv. In the clip, he is surrounded by his Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, along with Mikhail Podolyak, an adviser to the president’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, the head of the office of the president, and the head of the ruling party’s parliamentary faction, David Arakhamia.

With that video, Zelenskiy told Ukrainians: We aren’t running, we’re fighting. Ukrainians are fighting.

So, Putin expected Afghanistan in 2021. But he got Afghanistan in 1979. Ukrainians aren’t rolling over or welcoming back an old friend. They, and their president, are digging in for war. Their army is fighting hard. Harsh Western sanctions are targeting Putin and all his oligarch buddies, who were content to keep him in power while it filled their coffers, but who now stand to lose billions.

The Kremlin isn’t orchestrating a relatively bloodless coup in Ukraine any more. It is instead attempting to become an occupying force. And that is a much more difficult proposition for a country, even a large and wealthy one — you don’t need to look much further than Afghanistan to see the problem with external forces (who will, eventually, have to go home), trying to impose ideologies or governments on a people who don’t want them. Add to that those crippling sanctions, and you’re staring down the barrel of a protracted battle that isn’t easily won.

Or, to put it another way: How do you control a country of 44 million Ukrainians who suddenly have something to believe in? And how do you keep your own people on board?

[...]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin-miscalculation/

[pppolitics]

During the 2020 Karabakh War there were three seperate ceasefires brokered by Russia, USA and France, all broken within hours. As long as one side feels that it could achieve its objectives militarily then truce may be violated at any time. Ukraine should remain wary and vigilant as these negotiations may be conducted in bad faith.

In this case, Putin might be looking for an exit strategy since things aren't going as plan.

He probably need something he can spin as a "win" back at home.

[pppolitics]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Reiterating. Their government doesn’t believe in rule of law, only rule of power. Russia will break it and try to install a puppet regime the moment they think they can.

Maybe it's worth it just to live to fight another day

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1498036493893394434

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LOL, is this for real?

https://twitter.com/HelenKennedy/status/1498027257293524992

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https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1498042188495790084

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https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1498047294242963459

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https://twitter.com/fabtknz/status/1498034191673757696

[pppolitics]

Ukraine is really good at PR

https://twitter.com/BryanDawsonUSA/status/1498130052122386435

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1498158130454306826

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https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1498308256489345027

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https://twitter.com/i/events/1483255084750282753

[pppolitics]

'Show this to Putin.' A 6-year-old girl killed by Russian shelling

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europe/gallery/ukraine-girl-killed/index.html

[pppolitics]

Less gooooo

https://mobile.twitter.com/UA_Emb_FI/status/1498332538972033031

He's overplaying his hand here. Obviously the EU cannot admit a member that is in the middle of a war. Also, even if there was no contested territories within Ukraine and no war, Ukraine still needs to solve a bunch of problems, such as massive corruption, before it could even be debated whether it should be a part of the EU. Finally, the EU has all but regretted admitting member states like Hungary and Poland - there isn't much appetite for admitting yet another country that really isn't a fully functioning democracy.

Ukraine has become a symbol of democracy and of the people who are willing to die defending what they believe in.

Yes, the nation is poor and has corruption, but what the EU is looking for here is the symbolism.

[pppolitics]

What is left to negotiate?

If this is about Ukraine joining NATO, then there is someting to negotiate

...but since Russia doesn't believe that Ukraine is real country, but is really part of Russia, there is not much room to negotiate

[pppolitics]

I think the decisive factor in this war is going to be - can Russia gain enough ground control in Ukraine, quickly enough, to outrun sanctions and gain an upper hand, vis a vis what they would gain in a settlement right now? Do they think they can? If they don't think they can, they settle for sure. If they aren't sure, it depends. If they do think they can, they are unlikely, perhaps very unlikely, to settle.

Not sure, Putin seems determined that his demands are met and Ukraine can never agree to these terms. Even if the Ukrainian military is defeated, underground resistance in asymmetric warfare will continue. I think this conflict won't be over until Putin is done, ergo removed from power. In one way or another.

I mean, it look the US twenty years to realize that it lost the Afghan war.

[pppolitics]

The genuine question I have for everyone is how far can Russia go before you will support intervention on the ground? Can they level Kyiv and Kharkiv? Can they use chemical weapons? Can they start intentionally killing Ukrainians to replace them with Russians like the Germans wanted with Poland? Can they use a nuke? Where is the red line, because what I am getting from a lot of people here and Biden is that there really isn’t a red line.

I would have sent "peace keeper" troops in Ukraine a long time ago.

[pppolitics]

I don't blame Bulgaria for not sending their MiG-29s. It is several years off from receiving its replacement F-16s. I believe their claim if they gave their planes to Ukraine, there wouldn't be enough aircraft and parts left to defend Bulgaria. https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498440837830782978?s=20&t=XhOHu322KlD...

If I were Biden, I would do a swap with the F-16s that US already has in existing inventory.

[pppolitics]

The genuine question I have for everyone is how far can Russia go before you will support intervention on the ground? Can they level Kyiv and Kharkiv? Can they use chemical weapons? Can they start intentionally killing Ukrainians to replace them with Russians like the Germans wanted with Poland? Can they use a nuke? Where is the red line, because what I am getting from a lot of people here and Biden is that there really isn’t a red line.

There had been a lot of chatter on German television tonight about Putin's recent nuclear threats and the general consensus - which also included an interview with Germany's version of the JCS chairman, the Inspector-General of the Bundeswehr - seemed to be that while the use of strategic nukes against Western countries should be considered a bluff, there is also reason for genuine concern that Putin might be willing to use tactical nukes on the Ukrainian battlefield.

If Putin starts shooting nukes, it's the end of Putin.

No way would Xi be crazy enough to side with Putin.

[pppolitics]

I refuse to believe the Russian military is so incompetent that they are allowing this "40 mile convoy" that is on the front page of CNN to remain as it is. Either it's been moved already or it's a trap to draw out Ukraine's air force and the Russians have AA guns/missiles and fighters ready to cut down the air attack.

Clearly, you missed the past five days

[pppolitics]

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498691078437969924

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https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1498688423267344391

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https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1498691334428893186