538 model & poll tracker thread

[pppolitics]

Hmm...

I thought that it's going to be more like the Economist and JHK version (i.e. maps with chances of winning, electoral votes, etc.)

[pppolitics]

Can't release the model, but gotta tweet those s***y COVID-takes every afternoon like clockwork

The model probably said that Biden has a ~90% chance of winning and that's probably why he doesn't want to release it.

[pppolitics]

This model is way more optimistic for Trump/pessimistic for Biden than other models.

Other models have Biden favors winning NC at ~66% while this model has Trump favored to win at ~51%

Meanwhile, other models have Trump favored to win GA at ~51% while this model has Trump favored to win at 66%

[pppolitics]

This model is way more optimistic for Trump/pessimistic for Biden than other models.

Other models have Biden favors winning NC at ~66% while this model has Trump favored to win at ~51%

Meanwhile, other models have Trump favored to win GA at ~51% while this model has Trump favored to win at 66%

Yeah, I find it odd how we've had Biden leading in NC for months now, besides a few sh**tty online pollsters in the last week who have it like Trump +1, and yet, Trump is favored to win? Huh?

FiveThirtyEight's polling average in NC always has Biden ahead, so "the fundamentals" must favor Trump for some reason.

[pppolitics]

Nate nailed one election. He’s not God. This is a literal repeat of 2016.

It means absolutely nothing that he has a 70% chance. Clinton was around 90% on election night. Lol, come on man!

Nope

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-polling-better-than-clinton-at-her-peak/