AZ-SEN 2018: Sinema Paradiso

[pppolitics]

If winning the Senate this year wasn't so important, I'd honestly be rooting for Sinema to lose. The idea of being stuck with such deadweight for decades to come is painful.

She's running for Senate in Arizona, not Vermont.

She has to do what she has to do and there's nothing wrong with that.

[pppolitics]

If winning the Senate this year wasn't so important, I'd honestly be rooting for Sinema to lose. The idea of being stuck with such deadweight for decades to come is painful.

She's running for Senate in Arizona, not Vermont.

She has to do what she has to do and there's nothing wrong with that.

You're right, she's running in Arizona, not Oklahoma. She's running a more conservative campaign than Clare McCaskill

Sinema is also doing better at this point than McCaskill.

[pppolitics]

If winning the Senate this year wasn't so important, I'd honestly be rooting for Sinema to lose. The idea of being stuck with such deadweight for decades to come is painful.

She's running for Senate in Arizona, not Vermont.

She has to do what she has to do and there's nothing wrong with that.

You're right, she's running in Arizona, not Oklahoma. She's running a more conservative campaign than Clare McCaskill

Sinema is also doing better at this point than McCaskill.

Yeah, clearly that's because she's running as a Conservadem and bashing some random New York Senator in Politico interviews, and not because she's running in a Trump +3 state rather than a Trump +18 state. And I'm sure the fact that her opponent is locked in a fierce and bitter primary while McCaskill's has been already set for like a year now has nothing to do with it either. Clearly it's all because of her right wing posturing that 80% of voters aren't even paying attention to.

And what's wrong with "running as a Conservadem and bashing some random New York Senator"?

She ahead by a lot, so clearly, she knows what she's doing.

These days, you can't take anything for granted.

[pppolitics]

If winning the Senate this year wasn't so important, I'd honestly be rooting for Sinema to lose. The idea of being stuck with such deadweight for decades to come is painful.

She's running for Senate in Arizona, not Vermont.

She has to do what she has to do and there's nothing wrong with that.

You're right, she's running in Arizona, not Oklahoma. She's running a more conservative campaign than Clare McCaskill

Sinema is also doing better at this point than McCaskill.

Yeah, clearly that's because she's running as a Conservadem and bashing some random New York Senator in Politico interviews, and not because she's running in a Trump +3 state rather than a Trump +18 state. And I'm sure the fact that her opponent is locked in a fierce and bitter primary while McCaskill's has been already set for like a year now has nothing to do with it either. Clearly it's all because of her right wing posturing that 80% of voters aren't even paying attention to.

And what's wrong with "running as a Conservadem and bashing some random New York Senator"?

She ahead by a lot, so clearly, she knows what she's doing.

These days, you can't take anything for granted.

"She's ahead by a lot, so clearly she knows what she's doing"

No actually, that's not clear at all.

Actually, she's doing quite poorly. Joe Manchin embraced Schumer and is ahead by the same amount as her despite running a state that is 40 points more Republican. So by my calculations, if Sinema only embraced Schumer, she'd be ahead by at least 50 points.

See, this is the type of of #analysis you get to when you refuse to consider other factors in outcomes. You could run the worst campaign ever and be the worst candidate ever in an R+50/D+50 district and still win in a landslide. In fact, it doesn't even need to be a district that insanely partisan: just look at Joe Walsh and Allen West. Terrible candidates with terrible campaigns, yet won anyway due to other factors such as the very pro Republican political environment and low Democratic turnout. There's zero evidence to suggest that Sinema would be doing any worse than she currently is if not for her "campaign strategy." It's hard for political junkies on Atlas to imagine, but the vast majority of people are not paying attention to campaigns in July, and they're not paying attention to Politico interviews ever.

You've completely ignored the history of the states.

The last time Arizona elected a Democratic senator was 1988.

That was 30 years ago.

West Virginia may be a more Republican state right now, but it has a long history of electing Democrats to the senate.

[pppolitics]

If winning the Senate this year wasn't so important, I'd honestly be rooting for Sinema to lose. The idea of being stuck with such deadweight for decades to come is painful.

She's running for Senate in Arizona, not Vermont.

She has to do what she has to do and there's nothing wrong with that.

You're right, she's running in Arizona, not Oklahoma. She's running a more conservative campaign than Clare McCaskill

Sinema is also doing better at this point than McCaskill.

Yeah, clearly that's because she's running as a Conservadem and bashing some random New York Senator in Politico interviews, and not because she's running in a Trump +3 state rather than a Trump +18 state. And I'm sure the fact that her opponent is locked in a fierce and bitter primary while McCaskill's has been already set for like a year now has nothing to do with it either. Clearly it's all because of her right wing posturing that 80% of voters aren't even paying attention to.

And what's wrong with "running as a Conservadem and bashing some random New York Senator"?

She ahead by a lot, so clearly, she knows what she's doing.

These days, you can't take anything for granted.

Even conceding that this helps Sinema (which it doesn't), "maximize your chance of winning at any cost" is a pretty f**king stupid strategy if you want a party that's actually able to implement any coherent policy once in power.

The most important thing is that she wins.

If elected, she can move left with the state.

[pppolitics]

Martha McSally hammers Kirsten Sinema in an attack ad focusing on Sinema's anti-war when she protested against military action even after 9/11, describing her as weak on national security while boosting McSally by underlining her military service.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/23/martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-attack-ad-794337

Weak sauce

Oh no! Sinema was caught wearing a pink tutu!

What's she going to do now? /s

[pppolitics]

With Schumer's conceding to Trump/McConnell and allowing Dems to confirm Drumpf's judges, maybe Sinema's "I won't vote for Schumer" line makes sense.  At least, if you're a Democrat pissed off at this administration.

I personally think shes another Gillibrand, pretending to be more Conservative so she can win and move up. She was a super-Liberal in the state senate when she had a lean D seat, and when she won a tossup seat, she suddenly shifted. She could be setting up for a "I did say I wouldnt vote for Schumer" by going after Schumer from the Left. At least, thats what I hope. Her behavior has just been way too odd and seems like shes trying to be a fake moderate.

That's called a chameleon.

[pppolitics]

TUCSON, Ariz. - There still is no clear winner in the close race between Martha McSally and Kyrsten Sinema.

The race remains too close to call between the two Congresswomen from Arizona, and Garrett Archer -- and analyst from the Arizona Secretary of State's office -- says hundreds of thousands of votes remain to be counted.

Archer says most of the ballots that remain to be counted are early ballots that were sent late, and provisional ballots that need to be verified.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1060213643361415168

With nearly all of the ballots cast on Election Day counted, McSally leads Sinema by about 16,000 votes -- or about 0.9 percent .

In Pima County, election officials say nearly 80,000 ballots still need to be counted. Sinema carried a strong lead in Pima County, with 55.2 percent of the vote counted so far, while McSally only received 42.8 percent. County election officials say they won't resume counting those ballots until Thursday.

https://twitter.com/pimaarizona/status/1060249622541680640

The vast majority of ballots to be counted, however, are in Maricopa County, election officials say. Sinema has a narrow lead there with 49.4 percent of the vote, compared to McSally's 48.6 percent.

https://www.kgun9.com/news/political/elections-local/arizona-senate-results-still-counting

[pppolitics]

The next batch (buckets) of Votes won't be as Democratic-friendly as those from yesterday
https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1060688348321378307

You are a couple of days late.

It has already been discussed.

[pppolitics]

Conservatrash on Twitter, including some reasonably high profile usual suspects are now claiming AZ Dems are stealing the election, because there's no way Sinema could pick up so many votes in a "red state", ignoring the massive number of uncounted ballots and the state's recent trends. They are the true purveyors of fake news, if only Twitter would ban them for spreading false information.

Hopefully Dems steal Florida. If they’re gonna accuse us of it anyway, might as well

Florida is gone.

The Florida Democratic Party is too incompetent.

Anyway, let’s get back on topic.

[pppolitics]

The race is now Lean D according to 538-

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1061001154031685633?s=21

Maybe we should tell Mr. Wasserman that those Figures in Sinema's Home District will come mostly exclusivly from Pima County who has 53K left to count. Pima is Tuscon, Sinemas Home Base.

The Question is: Can Pima withstand the more friendly Maricopa Precincts for McSally coming up.

Sinema is from Arizona's 9th congressional district that is entirely in Maricopa county.

McSally is from Arizona's 2nd congressional district that contains Cochise county and a small part of Pima county.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1061050428530585601

[pppolitics]

I hope Senator Sinema does the Gillibrand Pivot back to the left.

She'll do whatever it takes to win the state.

If Arizona starts to vote like New York, then sure.

[pppolitics]

Time for leftist icon Sinema to turn around like a cartoon villain and reveal she is secretly a far leftist commie who will open the borders and eliminate private property now that this race is in the bag for her.

That pic reminds me of my ex

Like Hillary was everyone's mom. Kristen is everyone's ex.

I thought Hillary was everyone's abuela.

[pppolitics]

The fact that Sinema and the Green candidate combined have 52% of the vote...

Republicans should be nervous about this state in 2020.

Arizona is the Virginia of the West.

Except AZ Dems Sinema aside don’t make me wanna vomit.

Sinema said that Joe Manchin is her role model.

Does that help?

[pppolitics]

If McSally loses this, it would be a slap in the face to voters if Kyl put her in place. They rejected her. Let that be the end, and if she wants to run again, then let it be. But appointing her after she was rejected by voters would be messed up.

It would be fun to beat her a second time.

An appointed incumbent simply doesn't have a staying power of a elected incumbent.

[pppolitics]

The fact that Sinema and the green candidate are taking a combined comfortable majority only makes the party's abandonment of Garcia look more stupid.

Ducey is currently at 56% of the vote, so I don’t see how it would have made any real difference. The real wonder is how Dems managed to win 3 (and probably 4) statewide races despite the Gov blowout

Garcia ran too far to the left.

He needed support from independents and Republicans to win and he didn't get that.

[pppolitics]

Sinema will be a "One-Termer" in the same vain Donnelly, Heitkamp were especially if Trump loses in 2020.

The remaining Ballots will favour Republicans. It might not be enough for McSally to win BUT it will be hell enough to keep the SoS Race in Republican Hands.

LOL

Arizona is moving to the left, not right.

Donnelley and Heitkamp were doomed because their state keeps moving to the right and out of their reaches.

[pppolitics]

The fact that Sinema and the green candidate are taking a combined comfortable majority only makes the party's abandonment of Garcia look more stupid.

Ducey is currently at 56% of the vote, so I don’t see how it would have made any real difference. The real wonder is how Dems managed to win 3 (and probably 4) statewide races despite the Gov blowout

Garcia ran too far to the left.

He needed support from independents and Republicans to win and he didn't get that.

If 2018 proved anything, its that voters dont care about ideology. The more likely reason for the blowout was Ducey's nuking of the airwaves, and the abandonment of Garcia by the Democrats. It also looks like his rise in approvals from the McCain replacement were also a boon, as he never dropped after that point.

From talking to people in Arizona, that's not necessary true.

McSally aligned herself too closely to Trump and that's why she lost.

Arizona's educated whites really dislike Trump.

They found Sinema palatable enough to be able to pull the lever for her.

[pppolitics]

The fact that Sinema and the green candidate are taking a combined comfortable majority only makes the party's abandonment of Garcia look more stupid.

Ducey is currently at 56% of the vote, so I don’t see how it would have made any real difference. The real wonder is how Dems managed to win 3 (and probably 4) statewide races despite the Gov blowout

Garcia ran too far to the left.

He needed support from independents and Republicans to win and he didn't get that.

If 2018 proved anything, its that voters dont care about ideology. The more likely reason for the blowout was Ducey's nuking of the airwaves, and the abandonment of Garcia by the Democrats. It also looks like his rise in approvals from the McCain replacement were also a boon, as he never dropped after that point.

From talking to people in Arizona, that's not necessary true.

McSally aligned herself too closely to Trump and that's why she lost.

Arizona's educated whites really dislike Trump.

They found Sinema palatable enough to be able to pull the lever for her.

That doesnt explain the SOS race, the closeness of the AG race, nor the state legislature gains made by the Ds. Neither does it match the results from the rest of the midterm, where all three factions of the Ds preformed relatively similar.

Its most likely the difference between state and federal politics, along with the reasons I listed above.

The AG race isn't even close.

Anyway, in a lot of these down-ballot races, the Democrats can keep low profiles and ran inoffensive campaigns.

A full blown liberal would get blown out of the race.

[pppolitics]

The fact that Sinema and the green candidate are taking a combined comfortable majority only makes the party's abandonment of Garcia look more stupid.

Ducey is currently at 56% of the vote, so I don’t see how it would have made any real difference. The real wonder is how Dems managed to win 3 (and probably 4) statewide races despite the Gov blowout

Garcia ran too far to the left.

He needed support from independents and Republicans to win and he didn't get that.

If 2018 proved anything, its that voters dont care about ideology. The more likely reason for the blowout was Ducey's nuking of the airwaves, and the abandonment of Garcia by the Democrats. It also looks like his rise in approvals from the McCain replacement were also a boon, as he never dropped after that point.

From talking to people in Arizona, that's not necessary true.

McSally aligned herself too closely to Trump and that's why she lost.

Arizona's educated whites really dislike Trump.

They found Sinema palatable enough to be able to pull the lever for her.

That doesnt explain the SOS race, the closeness of the AG race, nor the state legislature gains made by the Ds. Neither does it match the results from the rest of the midterm, where all three factions of the Ds preformed relatively similar.

Its most likely the difference between state and federal politics, along with the reasons I listed above.

The AG race isn't even close.

Anyway, in a lot of these down-ballot races, the Democrats can keep low profiles and ran inoffensive campaigns.

A full blown liberal would get blown out of the race.

Last I checked, 52-48 is a rather close margin, one to be proud of against the incumbent attorney general.

Anyway, there is little proof to suggest that Sinema won due to being a blue dog, or a full blown liberal would have been blown out, since, as stated before, there was almost no difference between how a candidate preformed and their ideology, and the downballot of AZ, with many running as progressives, were able to mount large comebacks.

Unless you have proof that Sinema won because of ideology, and not because it was a highly partisan election that, in a state trending D, went to the D thanks to a Blue Wave, then I wont concede.

This isn't a competition.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061794284427329537

It’s going to take a heavy swing to McSally, with her winning over 65% of the remaining vote total in order to win. And the remaining ballots just don’t favour her.

Coconino and Pima are D stronghold

Cochise, La Paz, and Pinal are R stronghold

That obviously leaves the all important Maricopa, which hasn't favor McSally at all.

[pppolitics]

How much more Republican or Democrat do you think these last ballots will be compared to the lean of the counties that they are in?

Well, the theory was that the early ballots turned in on election day "late earlys" would favor McSally.

So far, nothing has materialized.

[pppolitics]

[pppolitics]

The problem for McSally is that she ran as McTrump and Arizona hates Trump.

That's why she lost.