International COVID-19 Megathread

[Meclazine for Israel]

Latest Active Case Growth data.



Latest growth in line with expectations.

Spain has issues with data reporting. Their New Cases and Recoveries are strangely proportional on the same day. But these two datasets should be two weeks apart.

England does not report recoveries at all anymore. Italy is way underneath on recoveries as well.

The German and US datasets looks pretty clean.

[Meclazine for Israel]

If France is falling behind on reporting new cases, they will be well behind on reporting recoveries along with Italy, Spain and the UK.

It really was a situation no one prepared for apart from Asian countries with experience from SARS.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest numbers from Europe and USA.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 83,172 – April 21
Recoveries added to curve – 15,000


France



France 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 10
Recoveries added to curve – 44,500

France has altered it's data for the previous 2-3 weeks in an attempt to smooth out lumpy data. I have added in 45,000 recoveries which brings down France dramatically in total compared to its European counterparts. This is one of the most inconsistent datasets of any country now. The response may have been good at the expense of data-reporting quality. Anyone's guess is as good as mine when it comes to France.


Germany



Germany 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 10,300


Spain



Spain 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 76,689 – April 7
Recoveries added to curve – 18,500


Italy



Italy 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 73,400


USA



USA 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 513,571 – April 21
Recoveries added to curve – 133,000

USA should start showing signs of lowering in Active Cases around April 22.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Updated Italy charts.
 From a peak of 33K hospitalized on 04/04, we are now down to 28.6K, a 13.3% drop.

Antonio, what is the source of your data/graphs?

Are you plotting this yourself, or taking it off another site/source?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Australian Active Cases dropping with almost 90% predictability.

Same with South Korea. The countries with low infection rates have much better quality data.

This may sound obvious, but it does highlight the lack of ability to control a pandemic of greater proportion in places like Italy, Spain and the UK. If you cannot test and report both new cases and recoveries, then clearly, you cannot track, trace and follow the pandemic.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Updated Italy charts.
 From a peak of 33K hospitalized on 04/04, we are now down to 28.6K, a 13.3% drop.

Antonio, what is the source of your data/graphs?

Are you plotting this yourself, or taking it off another site/source?

The data is official government statistics (specifically from Protezione Civile, basically the Italian FEMA). The charts were plotted by me, yeah.

The hospitalizations are interesting as they are not reported elsewhere.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Projections coming out of Africa are not looking very encouraging:

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-18/coronavirus-updates-china-transparency-uk-vaccine-taskforce/12160440#Africa

".without mitigation etc etc....the study calculated over 1.2 billion Africans would be infected and 3.3 million would die this year. Africa has a total population of around 1.3 billion."

Africa is extremely under-prepared for this.

The main issue is lack of reporting. You are just not going to see any meaningful numbers like that generated by first world medical infrastructure.

[Meclazine for Israel]

South Korea reported less than 10 new cases for the first time in two months, also with 105 new recoveries.

Active cases below 2400 now.

Yes, and Japan and Singapore after having such a flat curve for so long have started increasing at 10-20% per day respectively. They are coming off a low base. The interesting thing to see is how much of a stop they can put to this having the planning and time to deal with it.

And in breaking news from Western Australia which has some of the strictest lock-down protocols in the world, we have had 1 new positively tested case today:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-19/wa-records-just-one-new-coronavirus-case-with-state-total-at-545/12162662

One. This is getting ridiculous.

We have locked down the state from international and interstate travel and shut down shops and services for one case.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Franco, if you are quoting someone with graphs and you are directly beneath them, you dont need to keep their images. You can delete them from the quote. It saves loading times and keeps the thread cleaner.

And in a bold move for 2020, you dont need to quote them at all as you are directly beneath their post so it is obvious what you are referencing.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Wow - it looks like things are very much going the wrong way in Singapore!

According to worldometer has 1426 new cases been reported today, an increase of cases of more than 21%(!).

From what I have read, this "second wave" is mainly among migrant workers, who are legally forced to live very cramped together, in ways where social distancing simply isn't possible.

And thereby we arrive again at the sad truth: diseases highlighting social unequalities (in one of the world's richest countries).

Migrant workers returning to Singapore due to the travel restrictions.

This virus loves circultating in planes, airports and cruise ships.

[Meclazine for Israel]

First up, thoughts and prayers to Texasgurl for her loss affected by the Corona-virus. That puts in perspective what we are dealing with here.

Latest numbers from Europe and USA.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 20 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 81,163 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 27,000

I would be calling the peak of the UK Corona-virus pandemic April 19 2020.


France



France 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 55,200

France moves down the graph.


Germany



Germany 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 13,400


Spain



Spain 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 43,900

Spain shares many similarities with Germany, except greater cases. As a result, it will be interesting to see if both countries shared the onset date and the peak date whether they will recede at the same rate and end up getting to 10% of peak active cases on the same date.


Italy



Italy 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 88,000

Just waiting for Italy to update it's recoveries.


USA



USA 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 490,117 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 192,000

USA according to this data has peaked in Active Cases two days ago at 490,000 Active Cases. We should start to see a big decrease from now on.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Meclazine for Israel]

A vaccine for COVID-19?

We need to be prepared for the eventuality of never having one.

Professor Ian Frazer explains:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616

[Meclazine for Israel]

Less than 2000 active cases in Australia now, according to figures. We've been unbelievably lucky here so far.

With recoveries updated, it's 1,426.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Thailand Rebels

Protesting Against the Lockdown

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnoRPYhp4R4

[Meclazine for Israel]

As I was writting the post above, another big jump in recoveries was announced in Portugal:

Portugal update: (22 April)

Total cases: 21,982 (+603)
Deaths: 785 (+23)
Recoveries: 1,143 (+225)
Patients in ICU: 207 (-6)
Patients hospitalized: 1,146 (-26)

281,907 tests conducted since March 1st

Looking at the curves, i would say you are missing 12,000 recoveries in Portugal.

They are simply being under-reported worldwide as the priority for medical staff is on new and critical patients.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest numbers from Europe and USA.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 22 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 81,163 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 37,000


France



France 22 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 61,400


Germany



Germany 22 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 16,200


Spain



Spain 22 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 52,100

Spain shares many similarities with Germany, except greater cases.


Italy



Italy 22 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 90,000

Italy starting to become very predictable now following the downward curve.


USA



USA 22 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 490,117 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 252,000

USA on it's way down the slope should start to decelerate rapidly in Active Case numbers over the next week.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 24 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,996 – April 23
Recoveries added to curve – 40,000

UK has blown out with an increase in new cases causing the peak to move to the right.


France



France 24 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 59,500

France on the way down now.


Germany



Germany 24 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 14,400

Since April 19, the number of recoveries added has steadily decreased reflecting an increase in reporting this data-set by the Germans.


Spain



Spain 24 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 58,000

Spain has had a small increase in the last two days.


Italy



Italy 24 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 90,000

Italy following the curve downward.


USA



USA 24 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 458,503 – April 21
Recoveries added to curve – 325,000

USA on it's way down although the latest numbers in the last two days have lessened the downward slope considerably. It will now take longer for the number of Active Cases to reach 10% of the maximum. June 10-15 would be the predicted date now.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

For Australia, our current mortality rate is 1.18% of those who tested positive. So if 75% of people exposed are asymptomatic or simply non-symptomatic and were not tested, then our real mortality rate would be 0.3%. Australia only tested people with lung symptoms.

Clearly in colder climates were people are more condensed in their living arrangements, this number would be higher. New York, Milan, Wuhan etc.

Just looking through two months of scientific research and a couple of things are clear:

• We still don't know the exposure levels - that will hopefully come from serological testing which is underway in the USA with Dr Birx focusing on elderly care homes.
• We still don't know the risk of death once someone contracts the disease. The variability in patient response to the virus make this very difficult.

Although some patients (elderly, sick) are at a greater risk, there is currently no way to predict whether a patient will have a severe immunological response or otherwise to the virus.

So that means we have the following possibilities from infection into a person:

(a) People with no symptoms;
(b) People dying from viral pneumonia;
(c) People suffering sever immune response shock;
(d) People recovering fully;

But no way to predict which category you will go into. Most interestingly and worrying for medical professionals is that we have people walking around with no symptoms having no idea that they are infecting people with the virus.

So there is a lot we still do not know about the actual virus itself, and for that, we need to gather more data. Without the data which governs the risk of death, we simply cannot measure the risk against lives against the cost of closing the economies of the world.

For example, 150 million people in East Africa are under threat of starvation. If Governments close the economies of the world, that number could increase to 350 million people if food relief is not made available by the Western World. That is, one of the effects of closing the worlds' economies could be introducing a further 200 Million people in Africa to a life without food stability.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Some new interesting updates from data on Worldometers. Europe definitely heading into the clear as June approaches. Russia, India and Saudi Arabia heading hard into the growth curve.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 26 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,996 – April 23
Recoveries added to curve – 51,500

UK has been hit hard by the virus.


France



France 26 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 66,700

France continues to decrease.


Germany



Germany 26 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 16,400

Probably the most accurate data to model, Germany have had very few inconsistencies in their reporting of data, and this follows the predicted curve very closely. The most organised data reporting during all aspects of the pandemic.


Spain



Spain 26 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 41,400

Spain just dropped 20,000 recoveries on the Active Case dataset, so I have reduced "Added Recoveries" from 60K down to 40k. It makes no scientific sense to look at the Active Cases without an accurate recovery estimate as seen here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Australia have been reporting recoveries the same way, and Italy have reported virtually no recoveries relative to their case numbers.


Italy



Italy 26 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 92,000

Italy should be good to go in June based on these numbers. They will soon report a high volume of recoveries in big lumps.


USA



USA 26 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 322,000

USA on it's way down with a lumpy ride. An expected rise in cases from increased testing will most likely not impact on the curve as recoveries that will arrive from New York and New Jersey in the next week or so.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

Things appear to be quietening down nicely. A couple of eyes needed on USA in the next week to see the impact of increased testing.

[Meclazine for Israel]

snip

The UK really stands out here, in that its curve is among the flattest of all the nations. (in the active case growth chart at the very end of your post)

You are right. You have spotted something there. They were a lot flatter going into the curve in terms of growth, and a lot flatter coming out.

The key component which flattens the curve (slowing the spread) is 'social distancing' and 'personal hygiene'. So maybe the UK populous should be congratulated. I simply don't live there, so cannot say what is going on.

Isolation and removal of cases like South Korea lowers the peak and spread.

[Meclazine for Israel]

snip

The UK really stands out here, in that its curve is among the flattest of all the nations. (in the active case growth chart at the very end of your post)

You are right. You have spotted something there. They were a lot flatter going into the curve in terms of growth, and a lot flatter coming out.

The key component which flattens the curve (slowing the spread) is 'social distancing' and 'personal hygiene'. So maybe the UK populous should be congratulated. I simply don't live there, so cannot say what is going on.

Isolation and removal of cases like South Korea lowers the peak and spread.

What does the chart for Singapore look like?

Not the best, but they have good controls in place to get it under control:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/

I cannot do charts easily for small countries without accurate recoveries. And Singapore reports none. Predictive graphs only work with countries with good data reporting. Germany, US, South Korea.

[Meclazine for Israel]

What the virus actually looks like at 100 nanometers across.



Great animated slide presentation for your PC or phone on the first isolated images of the Corona-virus.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-28/putting-the-coronavirus-under-the-microscope/12158048

[Meclazine for Israel]

The Australian Government talks about differing national strategies when dealing with the pandemic.

Corona Virus Update

https://youtu.be/aWl7kQZHZE0

Sweden might have the best strategy after all is said and done.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 77,000

UK starting to come down with the recoveries added less than those actually predicted by about 6,000.


France



France 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 69,000

France has a couple of bumps.


Germany



Germany 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 14,400

Germany remarkably follows the curve accurately and this predicts well thanks to good data collection and reporting.


Spain



Spain 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 37,500

Spain continues to decrease, albeit at a slower rate. A number of recoveries are starting to be added to the data on World-o-meters.


Italy



Italy 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 90,000

Italy has finally started added recoveries to their data.


USA



USA 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 403,000

USA on it's way down with a spike every Thursday/Friday on the weekly stats.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Two different strategies:

1. Australia and New Zealand now looking at elimination.

2. Sweden looking at herd immunity.

Australian PM saying herd immunity is not possible:

https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/pm-declares-no-country-in-the-world-will-develop-herd-immunity-20200501-p54p02

I am not saying either is right, but depending on non-symptomatic spread, i would rather be in Swedens' position. Their healthcare system did not collapse.

Having zero cases in New Zealand, South Australia and Western Australia sounds great, but we are yet to face the virus and we suffer economically at the same time.

We essentially have to wait for the rest of the world.

[Meclazine for Israel]

To Cumbrian Leftie,

The deaths in Sweden week on week are now falling. Australia has a similar population to countries like Sweden and Norway.

It will be interesting to see how Sweden go in their summer. 21,000 cases is not a lot in the scheme of things, and they look like the have peaked on 'Active Cases' and daily death rate.

Australia has eliminated the virus almost entirely apart from elderly homes and our coldest state, Tasmania, is not going down like the other states.