No Nader Effect this year?

[Mort from NewYawk]

Getting back to the Nader effect -

The following, taken from Daves's stats, shows the 2000 election as Gore and Nader (the anti-Bush vote) vs. Bush (sorry for the wavy lines).

I don't make the assumption that Gore + Nader vs. Bush is a fair starting point for evaluating Kerry vs. Bush.

BUT I think it's a useful exercise to ask the question, "How many Gore and Nader votes does BUSH need to win BACK to ensure victory?

        Bush        Gore     Nader   Gore+ Nader  Margin       
VA   52.47%   44.44%   2.17%   46.60%   5.87%
WV   51.92%   45.59%   1.65%   47.24%   4.67%
AK   51.31%   45.86%   1.46%   47.32%   3.99%
AZ   50.95%   44.67%   2.98%   47.65%   3.30%
CO   50.75%   42.39%   5.25%   47.64%   3.11%
TN   51.15%   47.28%   0.95%   48.24%   2.91%
MO   50.42%   47.08%   1.63%   48.72%   1.71%
NV   49.52%   45.98%   2.46%   48.44%   1.08%
OH   49.97%   46.46%   2.50%   48.97%   1.00%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
FL   48.85%   48.84%   1.63%   50.47%   1.63%
IA   48.22%   48.54%   2.23%   50.77%   2.55%
NH   48.07%   46.80%   3.90%   50.70%   2.63%
NM   47.85%   47.91%   3.55%   51.46%   3.61%
WS   47.61%   47.83%   3.62%   51.45%   3.84%
OR   46.52%   46.96%   5.04%   52.00%   5.48%
PA   46.43%   50.60%   2.10%   52.70%   6.27%
MI   46.14%   51.28%   1.99%   53.27%   7.12%
MN   45.50%   47.91%   5.20%   53.10%   7.60%
WA   44.56%   50.13%   4.14%   54.27%   9.72%
               
U.S.   47.87%   48.38%   2.73%   51.12%   3.25%


An initial look at the stats might give encouragement to the Democrats:

In 2000, Gore + Nader would have taken NH and FL, and also brought up the margin in what were the toss-up states of IA, WS, NM and OR.

On the republican side, OH, NV, and MO were each under a 2% margin.

But consider that the "anti-Bush" overall victory is 51.12% to 47.87% - a margin of 3.25%. Does Bush need to take back all of that to win?

Assuming the same variation of states in 2004 from the national margins, it seems to me that Bush simply needs to take back 0.82% percent of the total vote from Gore and Nader voters to split the difference in FL and win. He would again be a minority President with a 50.3% to 48.7% loss in the popular vote.

A 1.93% swing of the total vote from Gore/Nader to Bush would give Bush the edge in the popular vote, and add IA, NH, NM and WS.

However, OR and MN (each with Nader totals greater than 5%) would still be out of reach.