Trump mocks "Crazy Bernie" at campaign rally

[Chief Justice Keef]

If this is all he has, he is sooooo screwed.

Of course it's not all he has.  He has the Presidency and the advantages of incumbency that come with it.  

DONALD TRUMP IS THE PRESIDENT!

How does that grab you?  That's an illustration of the advantages of incumbency Trump will have in 2020.  People will look at him as The President, and, at a minimum, will conclude that the guy with the job knows more about doing the job than the folks running for the job.

Even Donald Trump has not lost these advantages.  This is something to think about for those who intend to come after Trump with mere insults and aggrieved coalitions of minorities.  Trump's enemies never seem to figure out how Trump can break every rule of conventional politics and still win.  The smugness of his enemies, the sureness they have that this time it will be different; this time, people will listen to THEM, reminds me of all those Democrats who thought that they FINALLY had Tricky Dick Nixon where they wanted him.

Uh huh, that not how incumbency works. Its not just a magic term that gives candidates the ability to pull a win out of nowhere. Its a double edged sword.

A president with lukewarm or positive approvals, such as Reagan 1984, FDR every single time, or Clinton 1996 will have an advantage of incumbency, as voters like what the president has done and will vote him in again. But if the president has lackluster approvals or is unpopular, such as Hoover or Carter, then the incumbency bites back at them, as voters know he sucks, and wont give him the benefit of the doubt that is given to non-incumbent candidates.

To use 2018 examples, Charlie Baker has incumbency working for him, as voters have gotten to know how good he is, while Scott Walker has the opposite effect, as voters know that he sucks.

Also, this weird idea that Trump is unbeatable and no one can stop him is a poison that could ruin his chances in 2020, as its the same ideas that Democrats were trapped in during 2016. Sure, he won, but it was not grand or spectacular, it was not a Reagan upset, it was a small victory, one that will be almost impossible to replicate.

As I said before, if this is all Trump can muster, he is screwed, because incumbency is working against him, and the coalition he founded in 2016 is quickly dissolving.

It is, indeed, a double-edged, sword, but Trump has been able to consistently beat opponents at the polls despite his low approval ratings.  That's because he has the capacity to get voters to think even less of his opponents.

Trump understands politics better than Atlas Red Avatars.  He understands PEOPLE better than Atlas Red Avatars.  He could write a sequel to Machiavelli's The Prince and it would be successful.  The Democrats going against him will find this out soon enough.  Trump understands power and the use of incumbency and advantageous positioning more than his opponents do.  It's how he got elected in the first place, and it's his game plan for re-election.

The woods are full of Trump Deniers and Self-Deluded Red Atlas Avatars.  It's a myth that Trump knows nothing about politics.  The record shows that he understands politics in ways that few people do.

He beat one opponent, and in the primaries, he was the leader for most of polling. This doesnt make him a god. If he was a Republican who won a HI house seat and then a senate seat, and then won the presidency, then your logic would apply, but this is not the case. And his win was largely luck, I would not say winning 3 states by less than 1% was the Trump strategy.

He's not a God.  He is, however, someone with a track record in elections every other politician in Washington would envy.

He's a guy that people scoffed at and laughed at.  He's a guy that people would not acknowledge to be the front-runner, even when poll after poll showed he was, and even after he began winning free and fair primary elections.   He's a guy that the pros complained about, whined about, but couldn't stop.  

That's not misrepresenting the track record.  If Democrats wish to win in 2020, Trump Derangement Syndrome needs to be cured, and fast.

Just because Hillary Clinton was a below-average candidate doesn't make Donald Trump a Machiavellian electoral wizard.