It would probably help them, because it would be the final nail in the coffin of using identity politics and anti-rural appeals to try to flip suburban libertarians. Even if Northam still wins, between Ossoff and VA being closer than 2016, NeverTrump just won't vote against Generic R, so they need to find a new strategy.
I agree with this, and I have to point to Northam's anti-sanctuary cities stance he took very recently. He's gotten a lot of backlash from groups like Democracy for America, and for good reason. It's basically abandoning Democratic voters and conceding to Republican talking points. The truth is Gillespie has been running the better campaign because he's playing to exactly what GOP voters want, even the "NeverTrump" people; confederate statues and sanctuary cities. If you vote based on those issues, you're voting Republican. Northam hasn't been playing to the base, and we can talk about the dynamics of Virginia politics, but a more progressive challenger like Perriello probably would've gotten the most support from grassroots organizations like DfA, Our Revolution and Daily Kos.
So if Northam loses, I think it's gonna be a tough defeat for the moderate Democrats who wholeheartedly beloved in Northam's candidacy, and a boost of morale for the progressives who are challenging the Democratic strategy. I also think more Democratic candidates are going to start capitulating to the left rather than the right, because even though that might be at the behest of their big donors and long-time party insiders it's probably the best strategy for their long-term survival.
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