MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Chief Justice Keef]

Even if two-thirds of ballots are already cast, that's still probably Lean D. All this does is give Quist an election-day advantage, something that's been lacking for Dems in other special elections.

[Chief Justice Keef]

[Chief Justice Keef]

Violent Greg cancelled his appearance on MTPDaily

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Seeking the safety of Fox News.

Canceled his appearance on Fox too

Probably the best thing for him to do at this point.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Guys, it's literally a two-point difference. Can we stop making these premature calls?

[Chief Justice Keef]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

[Chief Justice Keef]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Maybe cause they knew it really wasn't winnable?

Bullock won the state against Gianforte as Clinton lost by 20 points. Jon Tester got elected twice here.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Quist won election day vote in yellowstone by 7%

Source?

[Chief Justice Keef]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

A Bernie delegate flipped a NY legislative seat that went for Trump by 18 points in 2016.

[Chief Justice Keef]

It's becoming a vicious cycle at this point. National Democrats don't support progressive Democrat enough compared to Republican opponent, progressive Democrat loses in an underdog race against Republican opponent by single-digits, and moderate Democrats regardless toss it aside as a reason why populism can't work.

If anyone really thinks this race wasn't winnable and the DCCC was right all along, you're being naive. Sure, Quist was a flawed candidate. But that doesn't mean he couldn't have beaten Gianforte if he had received more support from the party, not just outside grassroots organizations.


If you care so much about data and which races are "winnable" or not, look at this graph and see that Democrats aren't supporting their candidates as much as Republicans.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Kyung Lah confirms more voters went out to vote Gianforte because of slamgate and it helped his performance on election day

I guess in hindsight "Very Strong Man Bodyslams News Reporter w/ Glasses" was a good look for Republican voters

[Chief Justice Keef]

Unfortunately, as I feared, this election will merely tear Democrats apart rather than unite them toward a common goal. Establishmentarians will (rightly*) blame Quist's bernicratic stances, Berniecrats will blame the DCCC, Tom Perez, whoever. Yes, Bernie's movement will probably play quite well in the Rust Belt and in already-strong-left areas, but not everywhere. I think the Berniecratic sweet spot are Obama-Trump areas, not traditional Republican strongholds like Montana. The movement has such a great energy, and it would be unwise of the establishment Democrats to ignore or squash it. Support each other! I'm certain some moderate state Senator would have been able to keep the margin tight, or even if Quist didn't go full Bernie. Just look at Ossoff - he appealed to GA-06's Republicans beyond mere anti-trumpness.


*Rightly attribute some of the blame

Unity for what? More platitudes like "leading with our values"?

I'm getting sick and tired of moderates punching left and coming back with "now we need to unite, get behind us". Bullcrap. Quist was not a great candidate but he could've won, just like Thompson could've won in April. But Democrats don't have enough confidence in themselves to chin up and make the right calls.

If there was the same amount of energy nationwide for this race as there is in Georgia and Quist had still lost I might be saying different. But there wasn't, and leaders like Tom Perez certainly didn't do enough to drum up interest.

[Chief Justice Keef]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters.  

This is the easy answer. Instead of looking at vast swaths of the country disappearing from Democratic control over the course of a decade, and Republican governments in states like Wisconsin and Kansas utterly DECIMATING the livelihoods of their voters, it's far easier to say that either you've just lost one giant group of voters forever and/or that rural folk just decided to become anti-establishment for no apparent reason besides spite. It can't possibly be that Democrats lost their way with rural voters and fell out of touch when it wouldn't support the policies that would alleviate their economic stress.

If the answer for the Democratic Party's future lies in suburban "Panera bread" districts, then it has no future. As soon as Trump's out of office, most likely before or after 2020, these anti-Trump Republicans that are voting for guys like Ossoff are going to go back to voting Republican. That could happen as soon as 2022. Suburban voters don't support liberal policies. They don't even support centrist policies like Obamacare that tried to balance private health insurance with Medicare. Suburban voters have, throughout history, been some of the biggest breeders of fascism in multiple countries including our own.

[Chief Justice Keef]

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

Ah, yes, let's just keep doing the exact same thing we did in 2016. That worked out really well.

Suburban whites across the board are more liberal then rural whites, since a good portion of them are college educated.

If you want to win over rural voters, you are going to have to shift to the right on both economics and  social issues and I know that is something you don't want to do.

You really think Democrats couldn't successfully appeal to rural voters stricken by massive economic anxiety with policies that involved broad wealth redistribution?

[Chief Justice Keef]

Fellow forum lefties pls stop fighting amongst yourselves and become hardcore misanthropes like me.  Realize that most Americans are terrible

Matt Christman had a pretty good tweet today that reflected some thoughts in the back of my mind. Would Republican voters really reject a guy that beat the crap out of a news reporter from one of those "liberal media outlets" like The Guardian? They totally eat that s--t up.

[Chief Justice Keef]

I mean come on, democrats improved by 14 points compared with Hillary. It's not a bad result.

That's the real story people should be paying attention to. A 14-point swing towards Democrats nationally would be a complete wave.