What Clinton should do when this is over. (user search)
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  What Clinton should do when this is over. (search mode)
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Author Topic: What Clinton should do when this is over.  (Read 3715 times)
Ebowed
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Posts: 18,596


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: 2.09

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« on: March 27, 2016, 06:43:32 PM »


Dunno if you're serious or not, but I have seen this stated by others, and it's not true.  Dan Jones is actually the gold standard of Utah polling.  They are very reliable, solid methodology and great track record.  Anyone who doesn't take them seriously does so at their own peril.
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Ebowed
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,596


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: 2.09

WWW
« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2016, 06:48:10 PM »


Dunno if you're serious or not, but I have seen this stated by others, and it's not true.  Dan Jones is actually the gold standard of Utah polling.  They are very reliable, solid methodology and great track record.  Anyone who doesn't take them seriously does so at their own peril.

They had Sanders winning the caucus by 8 and Cruz by 23. lol

It's much harder to poll a caucus than a democratic election.  Besides, the caucus result underscores the fact that Trump has serious vulnerabilities in the state.
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Ebowed
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,596


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: 2.09

WWW
« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2016, 06:49:28 PM »

Here's how I'd write her concession speech should the unthinkable happen:

"I just called President-elect Trump to congratulate him on the Tumblr Left handing him the Presidency. Because they believed right-wing smears about Benghazi and emails, Bernie Sanders has won the nomination, and as we've seen in every election since 2010, Americans will gladly choose a racist over a socialist. I just hope our country and its minority citizens survive the next four years. Thanks for your support, and god help America!"

You forgot to include a hateful remark about transfolk.  Up your game!
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Ebowed
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,596


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: 2.09

WWW
« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2016, 06:53:47 PM »

Then they shouldn't even have bothered. I certainly wouldn't try to poll a caucus if I was a pollster. We've gotten tons of 20-50 point misses this year.

I do encourage you to check out Dan Jones polls from 2008, 2012, even congressional races, if any of it is still in Leip's database.  Obviously their polling will be more meaningful closer to the election date after the primaries are concluded - but if I were Trump, I'd be seriously concerned.

I agree polling caucuses can be a frightful endeavor, with Utah Democrats the sample size of people actually attending the caucus could have presented some issues, but I can't speak to that - the poll was hideously wrong either way.  It's worth considering on the GOP side that shortly before the caucus, Mitt Romney made remarks to the effect of 'a vote for Kasich is a vote for Trump'.  The polling didn't necessarily get Trump's support incorrect, just the numbers for Cruz & Kasich.
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Ebowed
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,596


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: 2.09

WWW
« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2016, 07:59:05 PM »

"Early election polling is useless except when I refer to it" - everyone on Atlas Forum

You know why Obama established ground game in North Carolina and Indiana in 2008?  Because of polling from this time of year showing him competitive.  Yes, he also invested in North Dakota and Alaska - yes, that didn't end up working out.  Again, I can only hope that Trump shares your cavalier attitude towards this early polling.  But given how he refers to polls in every speech (except the ones that show him losing the general election), he probably has noticed.  We'll see.
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