What would convince you that Trump is favored to win?

[PeteB]

For him to win, ALL of the following need to happen:

1. He is acquitted in the NY trial
2. He appoints Haley (or another non-sycophant female) as VP to bring in moderate Republicans and undecided voters
3. The economy shows further weakness (e.g. Fed has to intervene again, unemployment shoots up, bankruptcy of major corporations)
4. The Biden campaign has a major miss that captures the media (debate performance, health status of Biden, a scandal of some kind)
5. Gaza seriously splits the Democratic vote, helping Trump in places like MI or MN
6. Democratic turnout is severely deflated, compared to projections
7. Abortion and democracy are NOT a major issue in the campaign

This obviously equates to a perfect storm.  If any of these do not happen, Trump has no chance