Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

With that Mainstreet poll - hello Premier Ford (unless Renata Ford brings him down)!

[PeteB]

Finally...Ford finds efficiencies:

Doug Ford finds millions in efficiencies in brother’s widow’s inheritance
https://www.thebeaverton.com/2018/06/doug-ford-finds-millions-in-efficiencies-in-brothers-widows-inheritance/

[PeteB]

Best poll ever.


Zach Armstrong @zb_armstrong

Replying to @davidakin @Kathleen_Wynne
Don't believe the polls David. #LDNOnt North Centre is very much in play.

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David Akin  🇨🇦 Retweeted Zach Armstrong

Oh, it’s definitely in play. But Liberals are not among the players this time. This is a straight-up Orange Vs Blue fight in LNC.

------------------------------------

Zach Armstrong‏ @zb_armstrong 
Replying to @davidakin

Show me a poll that has a sample size larger than our own: almost 15,000 conversations with people in the riding, 1/3 still undecided, 44.6% of decideds voting for @KateMarieGraham.

I don't believe this "poll", but there is a message hidden somewhere here. 

With the latest Mainstreet poll, it is obvious to many, that an NDP majority is virtually impossible (something I have been saying for a while).  The only options are:

1. PC majority
2. Minority government with NDP and Liberals (in some type of arrangement)
3. Minority government with PC and Liberals (presumably sans Ford and Wynne - highly unlikely)

Even in a scenario where PC and NDP are within 1-2 % of each other, NDP's roof is about 50-55 seats. For option #2 to happen, Liberals should therefore command 12+ seats.  Translated into percentages, Liberals MUST hit 23-25% - anything less and they will be on 5-8 seats (or less), and Tories will probably have a very slim majority.

For this to happen:

1. Liberals and NDP must stop trying to jostle for the role of top opposition party (NDP would win that title anyway) and start thinking strategically and playing to win power.

2. Focus must be on defeating PC candidates, not stealing each other's seats.  Yes, it may be fun to see Spadina-Ft. York go NDP, but that is ultimately pointless, in the context of who governs Ontario.

3. Strategic voting - Liberals should be voting NDP in SW Ontario, Brampton and Niagara - NDP should be voting Liberal in Mississauga, York and Durham.  I have my thoughts on other regions, but those would be "controversial" - these should be easily accepted by all, except the fiercest NDP/Liberal partisans.

4. Wynne already conceded, so there is no shame in her saying that the Liberals will prop up an NDP government.  It may actually strengthen both parties (many "nervous" NDP voters would find it easier to vote NDP if they thought the Liberals would keep NDP fringe candidates away from power, and many disillusioned Liberals, doing that, would "punish" the Liberals and get an NDP government but in a situation, where Liberals get a chance to rebuild).

Will all this happen?  I doubt it, but that is the only path to a non-PC majority (barring the latest Ford scandal affecting results)!

[PeteB]

One interesting to note is that no strategic voting campaign with calls at the riding level has occurred  in this election.  Right now, Leadnow's focus is just to increase turnout and bring out progressive voters opposed to Ford, but doesn't call specifically which party to vote for.

Yes it is. People are misguided and believe what they want to believe. When the writ droppedd, Wynne believed that she will be the only non-PC alternative. She was dead wrong.  Before the last debate, I suggested that Wynne concede (even wrote a speech for her ). She didn't do it then, but eventually did - probably too late.

NDP is flying high and thinks it can win, but I am suggesting that NDP initiates strategic voting with the Liberals (as it's pointless for the Liberals to try and lead this) now. Of course,  they will probably ignore this or heed the advice on June the 8th, after they lose!

[PeteB]

3. Strategic voting - Liberals should be voting NDP in SW Ontario, Brampton and Niagara - NDP should be voting Liberal in Mississauga, York and Durham.  I have my thoughts on other regions, but those would be "controversial" - these should be easily accepted by all, except the fiercest NDP/Liberal partisans.

Unfortunately it's not that easy.  Most of the 905 looks like a 45-25-25 split roughly and it doesn't seem realistic to that 80% of voters of either can be convinced to switch.  

I think the number of ridings where 1) it's actually close enough and 2) the Liberal is clearly best positioned to beat the PC is really, really small.  Don Valley West being the best example.

In other words, this is likely to be a mess.

On the contrary, the areas I identified are very clear.  And I don't buy the "Liberals are dead" theory - they are just hibernating .  I purposely avoided Toronto, Ottawa, Eastern Ontario (Kingston, Peterborough) and the North (Thunder Bay), where this could be controversial.

From the Liberal side:
- As it stands now, NDP can win SW Ontario - Liberals can't (in spite of Wynne's trip to London today).  It's an easy decision.
- As it stands now, Brampton is going either NDP or PC - Liberals voting NDP there will ensure PC get no Brampton seats.
- As it stands now, Niagara is pretty much a lock for the NDP but Liberals voting for NDP may swing the pendulum in ridings like St. Catharines.

From the NDP side:
- As it stands now, there is no York region seats that the NDP can win.  Easy decision for NDP voters to help the Liberal incumbents in places like Vaughan Woodbridge and Richmond Hill.
- As it stands now, other than Oshawa (and maybe Durham), NDP cannot win any other Durham region seats.  But, NDP voters voting Liberal may actually help them win seats like Ajax (where Joe Dickson is actually in contention).
- NDP is almost guaranteed a shut-out in Mississauga (other than maybe Malton).  But NDP voting for Liberal would swing seats like Mississauga Centre, Streetsville, East Cooksville, Lakeshore and others.  Or they could be "pure", fight it out, and let the PC take them all and get a majority.

It doesn't look that tough if you are non-partisan.

[PeteB]

Latest Pollara tracking poll (June 1-4):

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-fords-advance-edge/

PC 39% (+2%)
NDP 37% (nc)
Lib 17% (-3%)

Ugly for the NDP and positively frightening for the Liberals.

Even more interesting is the fact that: "...Perhaps the most striking feature in today’s report is that among the 18.8 per cent of respondents who say they have already voted, 43 per cent voted PC, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the Liberals...."

If the NDP needs any more wakeup calls that they have to cooperate with the Liberals to get a shot at government, after this, they are clinically brain dead!

[PeteB]

To put all these polls in context of projected seats (using the http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html simulator):

Mainstreet Poll
PC - 79 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Liberal - 4 seats

Pollara Poll
PC - 74 seats
NDP - 50 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

Pollara Advance Voting Poll
PC - 84 seats
NDP - 40 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

[PeteB]

Latest Pollara tracking poll (June 1-4):

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-fords-advance-edge/

PC 39% (+2%)
NDP 37% (nc)
Lib 17% (-3%)

Ugly for the NDP and positively frightening for the Liberals.

Even more interesting is the fact that: "...Perhaps the most striking feature in today’s report is that among the 18.8 per cent of respondents who say they have already voted, 43 per cent voted PC, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the Liberals...."

If the NDP needs any more wakeup calls that they have to cooperate with the Liberals to get a shot at government, after this, they are clinically brain dead!

We have to state, it is not the NDP who us unwilling, its the Liberals; Wynne is still aggressively targeting the NDP, with Fords attach lines, even more so then the they are attaching the PCs.

Because she is trying to "save the furniture".  And the "logical" path is to target her former strongholds (most of which are NDP targets).

If the NDP gives her another way out, perhaps she will strike a deal (maybe not, but it's worth a try).  Because, as the numbers stand now, it's a landslide for PC.

[PeteB]

In Renata-gate news, Ford held a press conference this morning, where he claimed that the charges against him and Deco Labels are false and that he will fight them in court.  He also claimed that he is helping his nephews and Renata Ford, but avoided addressing media requests that he release financials for Deco.

If he is just grandstanding, but is busy brokering a deal with his sister-in-law, he should be fine.  Otherwise, this could really blow up in his face.

[PeteB]

It doesn't look that tough if you are non-partisan.

You seem to think that if it's impossible for the NDP to win a seat, the Liberals should be able to easily to take if it's traditionally been a Liberal vs. Conservative race.  You really think convincing voters in a riding that the Liberal is best positioned to win will swing the result by 20 points with two days to go sounds realistic, or that somehow voters will bolt to the Liberals en masse after coming to that conclusion?

While drinking party kool-aid is annoying (I have no time for "OMG Andrea is going to win Haliburton and Bay of Quinte and Elgin-Middlesex-London!" nonsense), being "nonpartisan" doesn't make an argument necessarily good either.  And BTW I prioritize defeating Ford over "what's best for the NDP." It's just that there's very, very few ridings where it is close enough and where the Liberals are clearly best positioned to beat the Conservative.

At these poll numbers, yes I do.  It's impossible for the NDP to win seats in York and almost impossible in Durham and Mississauga.  As for  "there are very few ridings where Liberals could win, with strategic voting", keep in mind that the poll numbers are not necessarily showing true NDP support.  They are showing people who are either "angry" at Liberals but want no Ford or those who have drunk the Kool-Aid that the NDP can somehow win a majority (to use the same drink analogy).

BTW, I outlined those ridings that may benefit the ABF vote - if the Liberals (with NDP support) win Ajax, Vaughan Woodbridge, Richmond Hill and 4 Mississauga ridings, that is 7 seats moving from the PC column.  Add the certainty that with Liberal support NDP takes all Brampton seats, gets St. Catharines and ensures wins in Sarnia Lambton, Brantford Brant and Chatham Kent, and you have another 5-7 seats moving away from the PC column.  There would be even more gains if they included Toronto and Ottawa, but I don't think there is enough time (or goodwill), for the two to agree on that.

And, yes it may be tough for either party stalwarts to accept they are working with the other, but the alternative is a PC majority.

[PeteB]

To put all these polls in context of projected seats (using the http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html simulator):

Mainstreet Poll
PC - 79 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Liberal - 4 seats

Pollara Poll
PC - 74 seats
NDP - 50 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

Pollara Advance Voting Poll
PC - 84 seats
NDP - 40 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

beautiful

Glorious. Now let us pray the Tory/NDP prayer:

Screw the Liberals forever and ever Amen

Fixed it for you . 

[PeteB]

To put all these polls in context of projected seats (using the http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html simulator):

Mainstreet Poll
PC - 79 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Liberal - 4 seats

Pollara Poll
PC - 74 seats
NDP - 50 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

Pollara Advance Voting Poll
PC - 84 seats
NDP - 40 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

beautiful

Glorious. Now let us pray the Tory/NDP prayer:

Screw the Liberals forever and ever Amen

Fixed it for you . 

I think many partisan New Democrats would love to see the Liberals evaporate, so no, DC was absolutely spot on.

I agree that is probably the feeling among rank and file NDP-ers.  But in my book, coming in second is still a loss.

There is only one possible winner from the Liberals demise - PC.

[PeteB]

http://www.liuna.ca/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=77:ontario-election-vaughn-woodbridge-poll-by-campaign-research&catid=8&Itemid=106

If only this poll is underestimating the Liberals by 10 points and overestimating the PCs by 10 points and that 85% of those that say they're voting NDP actually vote Liberal.  Easily done!

Give me a break. LiUNA has an axe to grind with del Duca - they even use the poll "result" to highlight it. That poll is junk.  

[PeteB]

Why do they hate Del Duca?

LiUNA is a union that absolutely hates Schedule 14 of the Ontario budget (I don't know exactly what it does, I can't find much info from google), and Del Duca was the guy who introduced it to the budget.

LiUNA claims that Schedule 14 would remove "the bargaining rights of thousands of LIUNA formworkers and void parts of a province-wide collective agreement that has been in place for more than 40 years", whatever that means in practice.  LiUNA has it in for Wynne, Del Duca, Sousa and Kevin Flynn, who all drove the legislation.  They may or may not be right, but their polls are certainly suspect.

[PeteB]

Actually if you look at the tiny number of seats where the Liberals still have a chance, they are mostly OLP/PC contests. These would include Wynne's own Don Valley West seat, Eglinton Lawrence and possibly Don Valley East or North. If you believe the riding polls by Mainstreet the Liberals are locked in a dead heat with the NDP in St. Paul's (not sure i believe it) and are only a few points behind the NDP in University-Rosedale (I expect the NDP to win that one pretty easily)

In addition to being OLP/PC contests, I would add another factor: they are OLP/PC contests in ridings where Ford bombs compared to a more mainstream PC leader like Christine Elliott, as well as a good number to "too educated to vote for Ford, too rich to vote NDP" types.

Are there any ridings that Ford is not a liability to the PC brand that the Liberals can still win?  Probably not in Mississauga.  Certainly not Vaughan or much of York Region.  Oakville is probably the closest in the 905 to this, but I think the Liberals are too weak to hold on there. 

Have faith in del Duca...

[PeteB]

Leger mirrors Pollara at 39/38/17.

Seat predictor for Leger:

PC - 72
NDP - 51
Liberal - 1

[PeteB]

^ Ottawa-Vanier?

Yes

[PeteB]

And for good measure, Eric Grenier just updated his info (with Mainstreet and Pollara but NOT Leger):



I guess we may yet see the first Green MPP !

[PeteB]

Four reasons to vote Doug Ford:

1. Personal Trust
Trust me; even though my own sister-in-law doesn't

2. Successful Businessman
I will run a successful 830 Billion economy; even though I couldn't do that with my own business

3. Focused on Priorities
Cheap beer, affordable booze, pot on every corner - we deliver; trust me - I've done it...personally

4. Prepared to Govern
Why would you trust someone with a fully costed platform or someone who managed to grow Ontario's economy - with me you get that big surprise in the box, and a new day will dawn!

Yours truly

Doug Ford (Premier Esq.)

[PeteB]

The Globe and Mail's non-endorsement:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-globe-editorial-for-ontario-voters-leadership-and-vision-are-not-on/

Can't say I blame them. The message to vote local in effect mostly means an endorsement of select PC and Liberal candidates (other than MPPs, whom do the voters know locally?).

I guess if I had the editorial positions of the Globe, I would endorse PC provincewide and NDP or Liberal in Etobicoke North, and hope for a PC government without Ford. But that is highly unrealistic, although getting rid of Ford will be considerably easier for PC than getting rid of trump is for the GOP.

[PeteB]

This is turning into a regular soap opera:

[PeteB]

More circus - apparently the Ford family business somehow reverted to Doug Ford's sole ownership. And, Ford's wife Karla is drawing a salary in the company.

While at the same time Rob Ford's wife is selling the family home (presumably to raise cassh).

https://ipolitics.ca/2018/06/05/fords-public-financial-disclosure-shows-he-is-sole-owner-of-family-business/

[PeteB]

Not sure how credible this info is, but it's from an email to campaign volunteers, sent tonight by the Liberal campaign of Yasir Naqvi, in Ottawa Centre:

"..The polls show that we're 4% behind..."

If true, it confirms the tightness of the race, and the NDP lead.

[PeteB]

Not the polling I've seen specifically of Ottawa Centre.  I'm curious what he means by "the polls."

Naqvi is known to be a nice guy and liked by his constituents - but so was Paul Dewar.

No clue. I am assuming that it refers to some internal riding polling, but they may have just referenced #s from one of the riding projection sites.

[PeteB]

EPP, using their "gut feeling" methodology has called all but two seats: Sault Ste Marie and Ottawa South. 

Here's their Liberal holds (9 seats):

Ottawa-Vanier
Ottawa Centre
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Guildwood
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre
Vaughan-Woodbridge

And their current projection is a narrow Tory majority:

PC - 64
NDP - 48
Liberal - 9
Green - 1
TCTC -2