If Trump Is Dropped, Who Replaces Him?

[PeteB]

These are imho the only three viable choices, should there be a brokered agreement for Trump to leave:

Pence
Pro: Conservative, Convention credibility, Could appeal to Trump supporters (assuming the Trump "divorce" is amicable)
Con: Too aligned with Trump, Too right wing for many, May lack gravitas for POTUS (think Scott Walker), May be better suited as VP to hold on to some Trump supporters

Ryan
Pro: Established national credibility, Ready to be POTUS and former VP candidate, Policy wonk
Con: Just took over House, Move could be seen as opportunistic, Policy wonk, Boycott from Trump hardcore supporters

Kasich
Pro: Best option to deny Clinton the middle ground, Strong in swing states, Clearly delineated himself from Trump
Con: Boycott from Trump hardcore supporters

Of these three, I think only Kasich or Ryan (in that order) could possibly beat Clinton (not saying they will, but that they would stand a chance). Pence would be more of a caretaker role, to lose with dignity. Other people either lack the ability to win or are not interested (and I include Cruz, Romney, Bush and Christie in this group).

[PeteB]

I'm not sure even Kasich could beat Clinton in such a scenario. The GOP would be effectively tarred as "the party that just nominated Donald Trump", as opposed to him having won the nomination in his own right. I agree any of the other Republican candidates would be unlikely for similar reasons.

The only logical choice would probably be Pence. Sure he may have issues all of his own, but when compared to Donald Trump, he is already emerging as a bastion of sanity. The nomination in that regard would be one last mess to clean up. If Trump were to drop out it would likely be in a spectacularly messy fashion that would make it impossible for pretty much any Republican to win-- so it's about losing with dignity. If he does a good job maybe he can challenge Donnelly in 2018.

Pence is the only candidate the entire GOP could agree on.

I think Romney blew it by refusing to endorse the ticket, or at least indicate he'd vote Republican in November.

While Pence would be the "cleanest" choice, in terms of convention credibility and Trump's support, I just don't think he can win. And if you are Ryan, Priebus & Co. engineering all this, you want at least a semi realistic chance of winning. Why go through all the trouble only to still lose - they might as well just leave Trump to do that.

I agree that Romney, who would otherwise be a good candidate, has ticked off too many people (and I don't mean just hardcore Trump supporters), so the only viable winning options are Kasich or Ryan. Mind you, even if they are chosen, they face a very uphill battle at this late stage. But if there is a candidate who may be vulnerable, it is Clinton. In spite of his antics, Trump has shown that clearly.

[PeteB]

On a side note, it's interesting that Rubio received 0 votes so far.