Clinton VP news LATEST: Podesta now calling the losers to tell them its not them

[PeteB]

Maggie Haberban from the NYT again talks Trump VP on a podcast, this time CNN's The Axe Files. And again she says Gingrich is out and added that Newt confirmed to her that he was not being vetted. She said the names she continues to hear are Christie, Fallon, Sessions and Cotton.

On the Clinton side she said it doesnt look like Warren (for many reasons), and Tim Kaine is the favorite

I agree with her. Trump obviously does not want a "Cheney" (and Gingrich obviously sees himself in that role )- he is looking for a "Quayle". And while imho Kaine is a sure bet for Clinton, Fallin is the best pick of the "rest" for Trump.

[PeteB]

Maggie Haberban from the NYT again talks Trump VP on a podcast, this time CNN's The Axe Files. And again she says Gingrich is out and added that Newt confirmed to her that he was not being vetted. She said the names she continues to hear are Christie, Fallon, Sessions and Cotton.

On the Clinton side she said it doesnt look like Warren (for many reasons), and Tim Kaine is the favorite

I agree with her. Trump obviously does not want a "Cheney" (and Gingrich obviously sees himself in that role )- he is looking for a "Quayle". And while imho Kaine is a sure bet for Clinton, Fallin is the best pick of the "rest" for Trump.

Pence is actually a close second behind Gingrich on Betfair Exchange, FWIW.

Agreed - Pence should be on that list. I just think that having a non-threatening female, with some governing experience on the ticket would provide the best of both worlds for Trump. But we are talking about Trump - even Carl Icahn, Marco Rubio or Omarosa could still be plausible VP picks .

[PeteB]

LOL, Pence would likely get reelected to the governor’s chair but choses to run with the thin-skinned narcissist. Something that may end his career once they’re defeated in November.

Possibly, but Pence really has very little skin in the game and a lot of future upside if he is the VP candidate. If the ticket wins he is the heir apparent in 2024, if Trump does well, or the next POTUS if Trump screws up, and gets impeached. If the ticket loses, Pence will have a more prominent national presence and still a strong political position in IN. If they lose in a landslide, Pence can legitimately say that he didn't even vote for Trump (he endorsed Cruz) but was the moderating presence on the ticket.  He can then run for Senate or just get a highly paid job in the private sector. 

The bigger question is whether a plain vanilla Pence really does anything for Trump? And would someone like Fallin or Blackburn, or even someone controversial like Gingrich, get him more traction with voters?

[PeteB]

In another analysis WP usefully describes why the Trump VP pick seems to change hourly:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/11/why-donald-trumps-near-certain-vice-presidential-pick-changes-every-day/

Bottom line: Until the final minute, nobody except Trump will have a clue as to who the VP pick is.  Nevertheless, let me repeat my prediction:

Trump/Fallin 2016

[PeteB]

Whoever says the name Trump the most times at the convention will get the VP slot.

Or perhaps whoever comes up with a good bumper sticker first :

[PeteB]

In another analysis WP usefully describes why the Trump VP pick seems to change hourly:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/11/why-donald-trumps-near-certain-vice-presidential-pick-changes-every-day/

Bottom line: Until the final minute, nobody except Trump will have a clue as to who the VP pick is.  Nevertheless, let me repeat my prediction:

Trump/Fallin 2016

Well, it's really difficult. There is no candidate without flaws. The best choice would be Kasich, but TRUMP should not beg on knees for Johnny to join the ticket.

If Trump did that and Kasich accepted, I would lose a lot of respect for Kasich, but I would at least gain some respect for Trump's leadership abilities.

[PeteB]

I am not entirely sold on this but, FWIW, from a number of news sources tonight:

"...Trump, who is slated to be nominated for president at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland next week, plans to announce his choice later this week. His allies say he favors a trio of elected leaders: Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former House speaker Newt Gingrich, Georgia..."

However, if true, I think we can safely take Christie out, so it would be between Gingrich and Pence.

[PeteB]

Trump says choice will depend on his "gut" and will be showcased at a joint appearance on Friday (but speculation is that it may be leaked earlier)!

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/team-trump-plans-public-event-friday-vp-pick-n608161

[PeteB]

LOL Newtmentum....

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/07/12/trump_vp_announcement_maybe_imminent_as_newt_makes_moves.html

[PeteB]

Haha- Trump is likely making money on all the market ups and downs of this!

This. Talk about insider trading.

Well, at least we know he will be finally worth the billions he says he is worth, after this campaign .

[PeteB]

Trump tells WSJ he wants an attack dog for VP

On a scale of 1 to 10 (1-puppy...10-pit bull):

Christie - 10
Pence - 2
Gingrich - 7

[PeteB]

I may be totally off on this but, to me, everything now points to Pence as Trump's VP. Trump is not the sort of guy whose ego would allow him to "court" his #2 (and on his terrain), unless it was a sure thing. The fact that he is making Gingrich and Christie come to IN and the ridiculous excuse about technical problems with his plane tells me that the Pence announcement is imminent, perhaps as early as tonight or tomorrow (yes, I know he said Friday, but this is Trump ).

So, I am formally changing my VP vote to:

Trump/Pence

Vs

Clinton/Kaine

[PeteB]

Yesterday we were 100% sure it was Gingrich. Now it's Pence again. And yet they've been reaching out to Rice and Kasich this week alone. I don't even think Trump knows who he's going to pick.

This campaign's inability to narrow down the choices to a few and fall in love with a pick is just staggering. Trump is going to make a pick, and probably wake up the next day and change his mind. If you are going to give yourself a deadline, think ahead and plan accordingly. Don't procrastinate, wait until the last minute, and make a decision you will regret.

That being said, if he wants to have a historically incompetent campaign, by all means don't let me get in the way...

...too late for that...

[PeteB]

Indianapolis Star a few moments ago:

Gov. Mike Pence said he had a “very warm” meeting with Donald Trump on Wednesday morning, but Trump did not extend an offer for Pence to become his running-mate when they spoke at the governor’s residence.

“Whatever decision is arrived at, we’ll consider this to have been a great honor,” Pence said as he campaigned for his gubernatorial re-election in Fort Wayne after speaking with Trump in Indianapolis.

Regarding the vice-presidential slot, Pence said: “Nothing was offered. Nothing was accepted.”

“I think he’s giving it careful consideration, and we’re humbled to be a part of that,” Pence said. “There are a number of other noteworthy Americans they are considering, and I’m just honored to be on that list.”

Pence said he and Trump “had a great conversation about the country, challenges facing America and my firm belief that Donald Trump is going to provide the kind of leadership that America needs.” A number of Trump’s children also met with Pence at the residence.

“These are good people. This is a good family,” Pence said. “He’s a dedicated family man — a great dad. He’s a builder. He’s a fighter and he’s a patriot.”

So no offers (officially) yet but Pence would obviously accept.

[PeteB]

Interesting:

The Never Means Never PAC purchased trumpgingrich.gop, trumppence.gop and trumpchristie.gop, all three of which redirect to the group's #NeverTrump webpage. 

[PeteB]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-vicepresident-idUSKCN0ZT1RV

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Presumably at some point on Thursday, Trump will tell the person he's picking that they've got the job, and he'll tell the short listers who didn't make it that it isn't them.  Whether it leaks immediately after that or if we have to wait until Friday, I don't know.  I remember in 2008, the night before Palin was announced, we started getting leaks about who McCain had called to let them know they didn't get the job, until eventually it was down to just Palin and Ridge, or something like that.

Logically, you would think so. But this is Trump; and while he lacks a lot of professional and human qualities to be POTUS, the one quality he doesn't lack is a sense of dramatics and media savvy. Unless he wants it intentionally leaked, this will be a media frenzy until the very end.

Mind you, if it's really between Pence, Gingrich and Christie, it's pretty clear to me that it will be Pence. However, I wouldn't put it past Trump to intentionally mislead and then surprise with a choice that is currently not being mentioned (Fallin, Rubio, Kasich, even Rice). But the current odds are still that it will be Tump-Pence.

[PeteB]

Robert Costa ✔ @costareports
RT @MajorCBS Marc Lotter, deputy campaign manager for @GovPenceIN on my flight from Indy to NYC. I'm sure just coincidence

Can't Dispense the Pence!

Can't Dispense the Pence?

Don't want to switch to Gingrich?

Eyes all misty for Christie?

Maybe a call-in to Fallin?

Wouldn't it be nice to have Rice?

Or have Ivanka or Jared hired?

Trump is so tired...much easier when people were just fired!

[PeteB]

Vilsack #2 on PredictIt, still don`t know where the hype is coming from...

My guess - just a smokescreen for Kaine.  

Clinton probably wanted to signal to Warren, as early as possible, that she will not be picked, to avoid disappointment later.  Vilsack is just a placeholder, to formally have two picks!

[PeteB]

Vilsack #2 on PredictIt, still don`t know where the hype is coming from...

My guess - just a smokescreen for Kaine.  

Clinton probably wanted to signal to Warren, as early as possible, that she will not be picked, to avoid disappointment later.  Vilsack is just a placeholder, to formally have two picks!

Wait, what?  Why would she engage in bizarre media engineering to do this and not just tell Warren directly?  And wasn't this being accomplished by the significant buzz over Perez the previous news cycle anyway?

From my vantage point, Vilsack as her second pick is a vomitrocious omen, especially when Kaine is the #1.

What I meant is "signal to Warren and the Sanders/Warren supporters".....   I would imagine that Warren has already been told directly by Clinton. This is about managing expectations.

[PeteB]

Trump announces that he will announce tomorrow when the new VP announcement will happen (sic!).

[PeteB]

Trump told donors in Bel-Air on Thursday evening he would announce his choice over the weekend.

[PeteB]

My prediction:

[PeteB]

If Hillary had any doubts about Kaine being the right pick, the choice of Pence should wipe them away. He is moderate, a serious option to replace her, if need be, from a purple state and, unlike Trump and Pence, she gets along well with him. And, with Pence, he will actually look charismatic.

There are many possible VP candidates for Hillary, but there will be only one successful Kaine-didate.

[PeteB]

Can you imagine if it was Rubio?

If she really wanted anybody from the GOP side, Clinton could pick Kasich and really create chaos for the Republicans. #NeverTrump would actually have a slate. But, it won't happen. It will be Clinton-Kaine.

If she does pick Warren, imho, it will be a colossal strategic mistake.

[PeteB]

Just looking at history and basic facts, this should be a no-brainer for Kaine.  The key to understanding this decision, IMHO, is the trust and chemistry between running mates. 

Fact 1: When Bill Clinton picked a running mate, he chose someone whom he felt comfortable with (Gore), in spite of not getting any geographic or demographic boost.
Fact 2: Hillary was there and closely involved in that decision.
Fact 3: The strategy worked well for Bill.
Fact 4: According to numerous sources, Hillary is very comfortable with Kaine, knows him well and trusts him a lot (unlike some of the other candidates).
Fact 5: Kaine will provide competency on #2 without overshadowing the candidate (as someone like Warren could).
Fact 6: With a Trump-Pence GOP slate, there is no reason for any "reckless" or "Hail Mary" picks on the Democratic side, nor is there really any reason to pick a "progressive".

Therefore my prediction is Clinton-Kaine 2016!